PRB 00-22E
THE GROSS DOMESTIC
PRODUCT AND
ALTERNATIVE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL INDICATORS
Prepared by:
Blayne Haggart
Economics Division
1 December 2000
TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION
WHAT
IS THE GDP?
A. Background
B. History of the GDP
C. Strengths of the GDP
1. Measure of Economic
Activity
2. Simple
Proxy for Social and Economic Welfare
D. Weaknesses
of GDP as a Normative Measure
1. GDP Excludes
Non-market Activities
2. Some
GDP-measured Expenditures Do Not Contribute to Economic Welfare
3. Stocks
Versus Flows
4. GDP
Ignores Distribution of Income and Consumption
5. Not
All Contributors to Welfare are Economic
6. Technical
Issues
TOWARDS AN INDICATOR OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC WELFARE
A. Troubles
in Developing a New Indicator
1. Definitional
Problems
2. Aggregation
Problems
3. International
Accords and Political Pressures
B. What
Makes a Good Indicator?
ADAPTING
THE GDP: SOME ONGOING PROJECTS
A. SNA Satellite Accounts
B. Redefining
Progress Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI)
C. GPI Atlantic
CONCLUSION
SOURCES AND FURTHER INFORMATION
A. Websites
B. Books and Articles
THE GROSS DOMESTIC
PRODUCT AND
ALTERNATIVE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL INDICATORS
INTRODUCTION
Although it has only been
around for roughly 60 years, it is almost impossible to think of a time
before the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or its cousin, the Gross National
Product (GNP). Its monthly release by Statistics Canada garners
acres of reporting, commentary and analysis in the media. It underpins
every business decision and guides general government policy.
As a measure of market activity
and economic growth, the GDP is unparalleled. The U.S. Department of Commerce,
which in 1999 named the creation of the System of National Accounts (SNA)
its greatest achievement of the 20th century, made the following
remarks:
The national accounts
have become the mainstay of modern macroeconomic analysis, allowing
policymakers, economists, and the business community to analyze the
impact of different tax and spending plans, the impact of oil and other
price shocks, and the impact of monetary policy on the economy as a
whole and on specific components of final demand, incomes, industries,
and regions.(1)
In general, though, the
GDP is treated as more than a positive macro-economic indicator.
It is increasingly viewed as a normative indicator of economic and social
well-being; Canadians look to the GDP as an indicator as to how well the
country is doing.
The GDPs usefulness
as a normative indicator of general social and economic well-being is
a long-standing question in economics and policy circles. In a 1974
Statistics Canada paper on the possibilities of modifying the GNP, Oli
Hawrylyshyn remarks that: In the past, GNP has served well its management
accounting purpose, providing information on market activity to
policy-makers, and the data on economic variables to use in the models
of research analysts. Now it is being asked to tell the public how
much better or worse off it is, hence the possibly increased deviation
of GNP from welfare is of some importance.(2)
The desire to measure levels
and changes in welfare has not abated. Literally hundreds of indicator
programs exist at the municipal, regional, national and international
levels, all of which attempt to quantify various definitions of well-being.
Many of these programs attempt to address concerns that the GDP was never
designed to cover, including sustainable development (which discriminates
among different types of development) and environmental pollution and
degradation, as well as quality of life. In the 2000 Budget, the
federal government earmarked $9 million to develop environmental and sustainable-development
indicators.
This publication examines
the pros and cons of using GDP as a normative indicator of economic and
social development. The first part of this paper defines the GDP,
noting both its strengths and shortcomings. The second discusses
the positive and negative aspects of alternative economic and social indicators,
while the third discusses three programs in particular.
WHAT IS THE GDP?
A. Background
While the GDP and the
rest of the national income accounts may seem to be arcane concepts,
they are truly among the great inventions of the twentieth century.
Paul A. Samuelson and
William D. Nordhaus(3)
The Gross Domestic Product
measures the total value, calculated in dollars, of all final production
in a country. It can be calculated in three ways: by adding up income
and profits received from production of goods and services; by adding
up expenditures on goods and services (adding money spent on exports and
subtracting money spent on imports); and by adding up the value added
by labour and capital when inputs purchased from other producers are transformed
into output. It measures flows through the economy production
not stocks, such as wealth and already-existing capital equipment,
and it does not measure financial transactions or gifts, where only money
changes hands.
While GDP measures economic
activity within a countrys borders, the Gross National Product (GNP)
measures the total income of a countrys citizens. It adds
rents, interest, profits and dividends flowing into the country to GDP,
while subtracting rents, interest, profits and dividends paid out to foreigners.
At present, GDP is preferred to GNP because policy-makers are usually
interested in the level of economic activity within a countrys borders.
In most cases, GDP and GNP are roughly equivalent, although for some countries
with a large foreign presence, such as Ireland, GNP is the preferred measure.
Real GDP per capita is often
used as an indicator of the evolution of a populations standard
of living. It is calculated as the real value of production of goods
and services divided by the overall population.
B. History
of the GDP
Although the collection
of statistics seeking to describe national economies in the western world
dates to at least 1665 England, the statistics underlying GDP and GNP
the System of National Accounts (SNA) is a relatively recent
invention.
The SNA was created in the
United States in 1930 to fill very pressing needs: to maximize production
in a (soon-to-be) wartime economy, and to kickstart the economy out of
the Great Depression. In stark contrast to the nuanced picture afforded
by todays System of National Accounts, government officials prior
to the mid-1930s only had access to incomplete and sporadic data on the
economy. According to economist Richard T. Froyen, One reads
with dismay of Presidents Hoover and then Roosevelt designing policies
to combat the Great Depression of the 1930s on the basis of such
sketchy data as stock price indices, freight car loadings, and incomplete
indices of industrial production.(4)
The first set of national
accounts, prepared under Simon Kaznets (future Nobel Laureate in Economics),
was presented to the U.S. government in 1937. At the same time,
British Economist John Maynard Keynes, whose ideas more than any others
shaped the post-war economic order, was developing his General Theory,
which called for a highly interventionist government economic policy.
According to Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Solow, Kuznets
work is the anatomy for Keynes physiology.
(5)
The SNA allowed government
to allocate resources efficiently and effectively for the war effort.
According to Wesley C. Mitchell, Director of National Bureau of Economic
Research, Only those who had a personal share in the economic mobilization
for World War I could realize in how many ways and how much estimates
of national income covering 20 years and classified in several ways facilitated
the World War II effort.(6)
The SNA, the foundation
of the GDP, has guided post-war economic policy, founded on Keynesianism.
And it is hard to underestimate its success. William M. Daley, U.S.
Secretary of Commerce, says that since the end of World War II,
when the GDP accounts were more fully developed and in wider use, the
boom and bust swings are much less severe.
They have had a very
positive effect on Americas economic well-being, by providing a
steady stream of very useful economic data.(7)
The success of the GDP and
the SNA can be seen in their ubiquity. The SNA has become an international
standard under the care of the United Nations, while the GDP has become
the pre-eminent measure of economic and, to a large extent, social well-being.
C. Strengths
of the GDP
1. Measure of Economic
Activity
As the above section suggests,
the GDP provides a better snapshot of an economy and through its
growth rate changes in an economy than any existing measure.
It summarizes a whole range of economic information in one number.
A decomposed GDP can highlight the comparative strengths and weaknesses
of various sectors. Tracking this number can thus give policy-makers
and analysts an easy-to-use tool that helps steer economic policy.
The GDP is also an accurate
barometer of the business climate. Technically, a recession may
be simply two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, but to business
and government it is a signal to adjust their policies.
2. Simple
Proxy for Social and Economic Welfare
GDP growth that is,
economic growth writ large is an important contributor to overall
welfare. Generally speaking, economic growth increases both incomes
and employment. The question then becomes, how well does GDP approximate
levels and changes in social and economic welfare?
If we are interested in
tracking changes in welfare, the GDP could serve as an adequate measure
of changes in social welfare if other factors influencing welfare remain
constant. Some economists argue that changes in the GDP, in fact,
do mirror overall welfare close enough to make it a good measure of changes
in welfare. In the early 1970s, William Nordhaus and James Tobin
constructed a Measure of Economic Welfare using U.S. data from 1929-1965.
This took personal consumption as its starting point, adjusting for items
such as regrettable expenses (which included spending on commuting,
banking and legal services), private education and health spending, and
adding in items such as the value of leisure (measured as the opportunity
cost of work) and government consumption deemed to generate economic welfare.
While some of these items are debatable (is leisure really the opportunity
cost of work? is spending on legal services or commuting really a completely
regrettable expense?), Nordhaus and Tobin found that the MEW
(Measure of Economic Welfare) correlated well to the GDP, and their sustainable
MEW (MEW adjusted for capital stock and growth requirements) with Net
National Product.
However, critics such as
Redefining Progress (see below) claim that using these measures results
in output and welfare measures seeming to have diverged in the 1970s,
so that GDP no longer accurately measures our total utility.
Perhaps the best argument
for using GDP as a proxy for overall welfare is that it is easily quantifiable.
To the extent that GDP approximates overall economic and social welfare,
having a one-number bottom line that is easy to calculate and track is
an enormous benefit to policy-makers.
D. Weaknesses
of GDP as a Normative Measure
Economists will be quick
to point out that GDP doesnt pretend to be any more than it is
a simple measure of production, but over time the idea has evolved
that a growing GDP means a stronger economy and societal improvement.
Hans Messinger, Director,
Industry Measures and Analysis Division, Statistics
Canada(8)
Most economists from
Simon Kuznets, creator of the SNA, to U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan
Greenspan caution against using GDP as a measure of social welfare.
According to Greenspan, the GDP is still the best measure of market
value of goods and services, (though) it is not necessarily a measure
of welfare or even a significant measure of standards of living.(9) Kuznets told the U.S. Congress
in 1934 that Goals for more growth should specify more growth of
what and for what.(10)
These cautions have largely
gone unheeded. In 1972, William Nordhaus and James Tobin remarked
that: GNP is not a measure of welfare. Maximization of GNP
is not a proper objective of policy. Economists all know that, and
yet their everyday use of GNP as the standard measure of economic performance
apparently conveys the impression that they are evangelistic worshippers
of GNP.(11)
More than 400 U.S. economists,
including Nobel Laureate Professor Herbert Simon and Professor Robert
Eisner, a former president of the American Economics Association, have
gone on record saying that GDP ignores social and environmental costs
and is thus inadequate and misleading as a measure of true prosperity.(12)
By its nature, the GDP does
not measure several factors of interest to those who wish to determine
the level and changes in sustainable economic welfare. The more
these factors change at a rate different from GDP, the less reliable GDP
and GDP growth become as a measure of economic welfare. As well,
some technical issues underline the fact that despite its usefulness as
a measure of economic activity, the GDPs form is not carved in stone.
1. GDP Excludes Non-market
Activities
All non-market activities
are based on production and consumption that occur outside the market
economy. Unpaid housework, childcare and most volunteer services
can, with few exceptions, be purchased in the market economy. To
a certain extent, leisure represents an individual choice in offering
ones labour services in the market economy.
The GDP is a measure of
market activity; as such it excludes anything that does not have a price
attached, as well as black-market activity. Unpaid housework, volunteer
work, child care, barter and the illegal drug trade are only a few contributors
to the economy that are not included in the GDP, even though most of these
could be purchased theoretically in a market setting.
Ronald Colman, director
of the Halifax-based GPI Atlantic (which is developing a series of indicators
for Nova Scotia) points out that any shifts between market and non-market
provision of these services and goods will be registered in the GDP, even
though overall levels may not have changed:
Because it excludes nonmonetary
production, the GDP records some shifts in productive activity (from
parenting to child-care, home cooking to eating out, unpaid to paid
housework) as economic growth, even though these shifts may not alter
total production. Conversely, recessionary times generally produce a
shift of activity to the informal economy, which the GDP would register
as a decline in production.(13)
On a macro level, the important
variable is the total level of goods and services provided, whether in
the GDP-measured marketplace or not. In this sense, the GDP provides
only a partial picture of reality.
2. Some
GDP-measured Expenditures Do Not Contribute to Economic Welfare
In some cases, looking at
rises and falls in GDP does not provide an accurate, or complete, picture
of overall welfare. If one were to use GDP alone as a normative
indicator, then externalities, i.e., outside events over which we have
no control such as war, natural disasters and disease, and which
lead to increased spending would be considered to be unambiguously positive
inasmuch they increase economic activity. However, the GDP does
not account for any welfare loss that results from an event such as a
natural disaster or a toxic-waste spill, even though an environmental
cleanup or reconstruction effort contributes both to welfare and the GDP.
Relying solely on GDP as a normative indicator under such conditions will
result in a mismeasurement of changes to social welfare because
it does not take into account the negative events that triggered the economic
activity: Though natural and man-made disasters,
crime and accidents all contribute to GDP in a positive way since these
activities generate production but they do not add to the well being
of society.(14)
If one were to use the GDP
as the sole benchmark of progress, any increase in GDP would lead one
to consider that overall well-being has increased. This leads
to the following perverse situation:
By the curious standard
of the GDP, the nations economic hero is a terminal cancer patient
who is going through a costly divorce. The happiest event is an
earthquake or a hurricane. The most desirable habitat is a multibillion-dollar
Superfund site. All these add to the GDP, because they cause money
to change hands. It is as if a business kept a balance sheet by
merely adding up all transactions, without distinguishing
between income and expenses, or between assets and liabilities.(15)
Other times, individuals
undertake defensive expenditures that may reduce their quality
of life. Some examples cited in the literature includecosts of commuting
to work, and costs related to crime and accidents. Again, where
these are involuntary (e.g., accidents), their positive contribution to
GDP should be treated as described above. In voluntary cases, a
judgement is required as to the degree and even whether
something is a negative expense. For instance, long commuting
times might be bothersome but could be redeemed either by a personal preference
for living away from the city core or for listening to music during the
drive. Or it might be a large annoyance bought on by a lack of available
housing anywhere near ones work. The point being, it is often
difficult to claim such a factor is completely negative or
positive.
3. Stocks
Versus Flows
Because the GDP measures
only flows, not stocks, the consumption of non-renewable natural resources
such as oil counts as an addition to GDP, while the remaining stock of
oil reserves is not valued as a stock. Natural resources should
properly be treated as stocks that are drawn down when they are extracted
and used. This would result in a clearer picture: when resources
are discovered, they would be added to the wealth of the country,
and subtracted as they are drawn down.
Although this does not show
up in the GDP, the SNA does provide for some satellite accounts dealing
with resource stocks, the reasoning being that along with physical
capital and labour they comprise a nations stock of wealth.
4. GDP
Ignores Distribution of Income and Consumption
The degree to which individuals
and different groups share in a countrys prosperity is another indicator
of economic and social well-being. GDP per capita, which divides
the GDP by the countrys population, provides a rough estimate of
each persons share of the market economy. However,
in reality, some peoples share of the economy is greater than others.
This level and changes in inequality in the distribution of incomes and
consumption, and the incidence of poverty, cannot be determined by tracking
the GDP.
5. Not
All Contributors to Welfare are Economic
Because the GDP measures
only those items that can be priced, it automatically excludes things
that are not in the economic sphere, such as a low crime rate, family
stability and clean air. At the same time, negative
costs such as pollution control, spending on burglar alarms and daycare
costs show up as an addition to GDP even as they arguably contribute little,
if anything, to overall welfare. GDP also does not capture investments
in social capital, such as investments in communities or social institutions.
6. Technical
Issues
Revisions to the GDP as
a measure of market activity are ongoing, as our understanding of the
economy changes. For instance, the differences between a capital
investment and consumption remain a continuing debate on the expenditure
side, both are included as the same kind of activity. A capital
investment, however, generates benefits into the future whereas consumption
generates benefits only immediately. According to Alan Greenspan,
in
todays world it has become very much more difficult to figure
out whether a particular outlay is expensed and not included in the
measure of the GDP, or whether it is capitalized and it is. Its
an all-or-nothing operation. And as a consequence of that, having
moved to capitalizing the software that is not embodied in the hardware,
a major shift in the process of how one evaluates what were producing
is occurring.(16)
Furthermore, several items
contain elements both of consumption and investment, such as education.
As Hawrylyshyn remarks, in this case, One easy way out is to draw
the line at either end: current GNP does so in favour of consumption NT
and the JNNW (two other measures) do so in favour of investment.(17)
TOWARDS AN INDICATOR OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC WELFARE
All alternative economic
and social indicators are designed to: address some or all of the
above issues; empirically study and track social issues such as sustainable
development and environmental degradation; and address the problems encountered
in the use of GDP as a normative indicator. Although many groups
have put forward indicators to rival or complement the GDP, no one indicator
has achieved widespread acceptance or even come close to overshadowing
the GDP. The following section outlines the efforts of three groups
those behind the SNA, as well as Redefining Progress and GPI Atlantic,
based in Nova Scotia while the first section details some general
criticisms of social indicators.
A. Troubles
in Developing a New Indicator
1. Definitional
Problems
By sticking to the prices
attached to market transactions, the Gross Domestic Product is able to
construct an inclusive index with an agreed-upon bottom line. Social
indicators do not share these characteristics. Although most people
could come to a general consensus on several items as they relate to quality
of life (clean water is good, crime is bad) or what is negative
growth, there will always be disagreement regarding both the exhaustiveness
of measurements (something will always be left off the list) and their
relative weighting.
Consequently, reaching agreement
on the composition of an overall indicator of social welfare is very difficult;
by nature, they are loaded with value judgements. Although constructing
an indicator of sustainable economic and social welfare is not impossible,
its relevance will depend on its acceptance.
The GDP faces a somewhat
different problem. Although it is an objective, positive measure
of economic growth, its use as a proxy for social welfare represents a
judgement as to the importance of market activity and economic growth.
Relying solely on GDP automatically excludes using other indicators, which
is itself a value judgement (that, for example, income inequality and
the value of unpaid housework are not important measures of social welfare
in the one case, and that GDP is an accurate measure of welfare).
2. Aggregation
Problems
It is difficult, if not
impossible, to aggregate such undeniably quality-of-life issues such as
crime level, leisure time and traffic congestion: they all have different
bases. The preferred solution putting a price on all these
concerns is fraught with measurement problems. Although pricing
some non-market activities, such as unpaid housework, is slowly gaining
acceptance, pricing everything from leisure time and time stuck in traffic
(one suggestion: foregone wages) to resource depletion represents a value
judgement on behalf of the indicators creator both in terms of inclusion
and, as discussed earlier, the weight given. Aggregation, as mentioned
earlier, also opens an index to the problems of subjective weighting.
The simplest solution to
aggregation problems is possibly to avoid it completely. No one number
GDP or otherwise can offer the kind of nuanced view of the
world needed to make policy decisions. Therefore, although a one-stop
number might be desirable for simplicitys sake, a Dashboard
Model suggested by the Winnipeg-based International Institute
for Sustainable Development (www.iisd.ca)
might be more practical. In the same way that a cars
dashboard features a speedometer, an odometer and a tachometer, along
with several warning lights, Dashboard Model indicators would feature
several indicators for instance GDP, pollution measures, resource
accounts and crime levels that provide a clearer picture of how
the country is doing. This allows for a more complete presentation
of social welfare and avoiding the oversimplification inherent in depending
on a single number.
3. International
Accords and Political Pressures
National and international
inertia also weigh against the widespread use of an alternative indicator.
For more than 50 years, the System of National Accounts has been used,
quoted and refined around the world. Every country has accepted
GDP as a measure of economic activity; furthermore, increasing it has
become a universal goal, from Canada to China. Consequently, radical
modifications to the GDP are unlikely because of the importance of international
comparability. However, as Statistics Canadas Hans Messinger
remarks, the importance of international comparability does not
preclude ourselves putting out alternative measures to (GDP).(18)
B.
What Makes a Good Indicator?
According to the Winnipeg-based
International Institute of Sustainable Development, a good alternative
economic indicator is characterized by the following factors:
In some cases, constructing
indices requires creating new data sets; in others, data must be reused
in new ways. Probably the most difficult criterion to fulfil is
that it be scientifically valid (this covers issues such as
measurement and definitional problems). Again, it should be noted
that these issues apply equally to the GDP when it is used as an indicator
of social welfare.
ADAPTING
THE GDP: SOME ONGOING PROJECTS
A. SNA
Satellite Accounts
The rise of environmentalism
has been one of the main forces behind the alternative-indicators movement.
In response, the 1993 revisions to the SNA by the United Nations, World
Bank, International Monetary Fund, Organisation for Economic Co-operation
and Development (OECD), and the Commission of the European Communities
incorporated guidelines to allow for a satellite system for integrated
environmental and economic accounting, to make explicit environmental
protection expenditures, to link resource use and waste production to
economic data and to calculate an environmentally adjusted Net Domestic
Product to account for natural resource depletion and environmental degradation.
In accordance with this
goal, the World Bank in 1997 published Expanding the Measure of Wealth:
Indicators of Environmentally Sustainable Development, and Statistics
Canada released on December 4, 1997, the new Canadian System of Environmental
and Resource Accounts, which will be incorporated into the countrys
national balance sheets and input-output accounts. In fact, a
major goal of Statistics Canadas new Environmental Protection
Expenditure Accounts is to provide those who might be interested
in calculating an environmentally-adjusted GDP along these lines with
the information necessary to do so.
(from GPI Atlantics
Measuring Sustainable Development)
Incorporating natural resources
into balance sheet accounts provides a statement of national wealth (value
of capital from which a nation can derive future income). Currently,
this includes machines that harvest timber, but not the timber itself.
Both are capital assets, but unlike the situation of a nation losing all
its capital (as currently defined), a nation could exhaust a natural resource
and it would not show up in the calculation of the national accounts.
The reason for this is the fact that man-made capital is taken into account
when it is created; however, discovered natural capital is
never accounted for on a balance sheet.
The satellite system reorganizes
the SNA framework to better serve environmental analysis to make explicit
spending on environmental protection activities, and to present the value
of natural resource asset stocks and the yearly change in these stocks.
It also describes the environment/economy interaction in physical terms,
linking data on resource use and waste production to economic data from
SNA. The result is an environmentally adjusted Net Domestic Product.
B. Redefining
Progress Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI)
Redefining Progress, a San
Francisco-based policy organization (www.rprogress.org),
is at the forefront of the alternative economic/social indicator movement.
Their Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) adjusts the GDP to account for
negative growth (such as resource depletion and spending for
crime prevention) versus positive growth. Its goal
is to create a single-number indicator that will supplant GDP as a measure
of economic and social welfare.
The GPI is designed to measure
economic welfare and sustainable economic development. It begins
with consumer spending adjusted for income inequality, to which it adds
and subtracts various factors deemed to contribute or hamper sustainable
economic development and social welfare (see Table 1).
Its greatest value is that
it allows policy-makers to ask questions about the quality of economic
growth that cannot be answered by traditional economic measures such as
GDP. Once these adjustments are made, the GPIs picture of
the U.S. economy over the past two decades is less than rosy; although
U.S. GDP has increased substantially over this period, the GPI has charted
a 45% decline in the U.S. economy.
Again, much of the criticism
surrounding the GPI centres on how it handles its component parts.
To list only a few of its critiques, it excludes most government spending
(not all of which is intermediate or defensive), non-renewable metallic
and non-metallic minerals, and renewable resources such as forestry and
fishing, and it does not deal with human capital.
Furthermore, many of the
prices (e.g., the value of unused resources) are inherently subjective.
For instance, it places an equal value on unemployment and underemployment.
As well, its list of adjustments can be considered either too restrictive
or not restrictive enough. Finally, it possesses the above-stated
problem of aggregating many diverse factors into a monetary bottom line.
Table 1: Summary of the
valuation methods for each GPI component
+/-
|
GPI Contributions
|
Calculation
Method
|
|
Personal
Consumption |
Largest
component of both GDP and GPI |
|
Income
Distribution |
Gini coefficient
of distribution of income among households used as index number |
|
Weighted
Personal Consumption |
Consumption
divided by income distribution index |
+ |
Value
of Housework and Parenting |
Estimated
number of hours per year times fixed dollar amount |
+ |
Value
of Volunteer Work |
Estimated
number of hours per year times fixed dollar amount |
+ |
Services
of Consumer Durables |
Stock
of cars, furniture, etc. times fixed percentage |
+ |
Services
of Highways and Streets |
Stock
of highways times fixed percentage |
- |
Cost of
Crime |
Direct
cost to households plus defensive expenditures to avoid crime |
- |
Cost of
Family Breakdown |
Divorce
costs (lawyers plus effect on children) plus imputed cost of TV
watching |
- |
Loss of
Leisure Time |
Difference
between hours of leisure in 1969 and in other years times $11.20
per hour times labour force |
- |
Cost of
Underemployment |
Members
of labour force working fewer hours than they want times the number
of constrained hours per year they arent working times $11.20 |
- |
Cost of
Consumer Durables |
Spending
on cars, furniture, etc. (offsets Services of Consumer Durables) |
- |
Cost of
Commuting |
Out-of-pocket
cost plus value of time spent commuting |
- |
Cost of
Household Pollution Abatement |
Spending
by households on pollution abatement equipment mostly for
vehicles |
- |
Cost of
Automobile Accidents |
Vehicle
damage and hospital costs |
- |
Cost of
Water Pollution |
Loss of
water quality plus siltation |
- |
Cost of
Air Pollution |
Damage
to vegetation, structures and aesthetics, soiling of cloth materials,
acid rain, loss of urban property values (not health or mortality
cost) |
- |
Cost of
Noise Pollution |
Reduced
quality of human environment |
- |
Loss of
Wetlands |
Annualized
value of the cumulative loss of services (purification, flood
control, wildlife habitat) with value increasing exponentially
as a result of scarcity value |
- |
Loss of
Farmland |
Annualized
value of the cumulative loss of soil productivity based on assumption
that inherent soil fertility will have greater value in the future
as fertilizer and other inputs become more costly (soil erosion,
soil compaction, urbanization) |
- |
Depletion
of Nonrenewable Resources |
Annualized
value of the cumulative loss of potential services of resources
that have been permanently lost (measured as increasing cost of
what would be required to replace the cumulative quantity of energy
resources produced domestically) |
- |
Cost of
Long-term Environmental Damage |
Current
value of the cumulative expected costs of future damage from climate
change and nuclear waste management (fossil fuel and nuclear energy
consumption times fixed dollar value per unit) |
- |
Cost of
Ozone Depletion |
Cumulative
world production of CFC-11 and CFC-12 times fixed dollar amount
per unit |
- |
Loss of
Old-Growth Forests |
Cumulative
value of the loss of ecological services from old-growth forest
plus damage from forest roads |
+ |
Net Capital
Investment |
Change
in stock of fixed capital minus change in stock of capital required
for new workers equals net additional stock available for all
workers (swings modified by use of rolling averages) |
+ |
Net Foreign
Lending or Borrowing |
Change
in the net international position (corresponds to change in current
trade balance) smoothed by using a five-year rolling average |
|
Genuine
Progress Indicator |
Sum of
above calculations
|
Note: +/- indicates whether
a GPI section is to be added or subtracted.
Source: Redefining Progress,
Why Bigger Isnt Better: The Genuine Progress Indicator
1999 Update,
www.rprogress.org/pubs/gpi1999/gpi1999.html
C. GPI
Atlantic
The Halifax-based GPI Atlantic
(www.gpiatlantic.org) takes a different
approach than that taken by Redefining Progress. Instead of starting
with a fully constructed bottom-line measure or indicator, GPI Atlantic
a non-profit research group founded in 1997 is creating
a series of accounts for Nova Scotia that eventually will be integrated
into one overlying to develop an index of sustainable development and
well-being. In contrast to Redefining Progress, its GPI is a Genuine
Progress Index, not a bottom-line indicator: twenty well-regarded
and acceptable sets of indicators to produce one well-regarded and acceptable
general index that will help monitor various issues. It hopes
to build consensus on its individual indicators, through an extensive
review process by Statistics Canada staff, and by government, academic
and independent experts.
Statistics Canada has designated
GPI Atlantic (the GPI stands for Genuine Progress Index) as a pilot project
for Canada. Statistics Canada is providing in-kind support in the
form of data access, ongoing advice and consultation, and review of drafts.
The GPI accounts are divided
into five groups with related subcomponents: Time Use (e.g., value of
unpaid housework and childcare); Natural Resources (e.g., fisheries);
Environment; Socioeconomic (e.g., income distribution); and Social Capital
(e.g., cost of crime, health care). Some of the accounts have already
been completed, with the rest targeted for completion by 2000-2001.
CONCLUSION
In the field of alternative
economic and social indicators, human ingenuity is not a problem.
The IISD website alone lists more than 100 local, national and international
indicator programs. Instead, the current problem is one of consensus
and acceptance. Government support is a major reason why the GDP
was accepted, becoming the most widely used indicator. Only government
can give an indicator program the recognition, the resources and the data
base needed to make an indicator anything more than a semi-authoritative
number designed to fit the needs ideological, financial or otherwise
of its creator.
In the end, the value of
all of these indicator programs will be based on their usefulness.
In this sense, GDP has already proven itself as a guide to economic policy.
In other areas, other indicators are required. As Clifford Cobb,
Ted Halstead and Jonathan Rowe remark, An approximation of social
and habitat costs would be less distorting and perverse than the GDP is
now; a conservative estimate of, say, the costs of family breakdown and
crime would produce a more accurate picture of economic progress than
does ignoring such costs entirely.(19)
Much as the evolution of the System of National Accounts has allowed policy-makers
an increasingly nuanced view of the market economy, so can the use of
well-designed alternative economic and social indicators help frame questions
that place the economy in a larger social context.
SOURCES
AND FURTHER INFORMATION
Alternative economic indicators
do not lack for champions. A wealth of information on the subject
is available, both on the Internet and in the library. The following
sources were used or consulted in the preparation of this paper.
A. Websites
B. Books
and Articles
Anderson, Victor. Alternative
Economic Indicators. London: Routledge, 1991.
Baker, Linda. Real
Wealth: The Genuine Progress Indicator Could Provide an Environmental
Measure of the Planets Health. In E/The Environmental Magazine,
May-June 1999, Internet edition, www.emagazine.com/may-june_1999/0599feat2.html
Cobb, Clifford, Ted Halstead,
and Jonathan Rowe.
-
If
the GDP is Up, Why is America Down? Atlantic Monthly.
October 1995. www.theatlantic.com/politics/ecbig/gdp.htm
-
Redefining
Progress: The Genuine Progress Indicator, Summary of Data and Methodology.
Redefining Progress, 1995.
Colman, Ronald. Background.
In Measuring Sustainable Development: Application of the Genuine Progress
Index to Nova Scotia, Progress Report and Future Directions. 16 January
1998, http://www.gpiatlantic.org/archive/background.html
Dale, Ann and John B. Robinson,
eds. Achieving Sustainable Development. Vancouver: UBC Press,
1996.
Hawrylyshyn, Oli. A
Review of Recent Proposals for Modifying and Extending the Measure of
GNP. Statistics Canada. December 1974.
Henderson, D.W. Social
Indicators: A Rationale and Research Framework. Ottawa: Economic Council
of Canada, 1974.
Kuznets, Simon. How
to Judge Quality. New Republic, 20 October 1962, p. 29.
Measuring Well-being:
Proceedings from a Symposium on Social Indicators, Final Report.
Canadian Council on Social Development. November 1996.
Nordhaus, William and James
Tobin. Is Growth Obsolete? In Economic Growth, National
Bureau of Economic Research General Series No. 96E. New York: Columbia
University Press, 1972.
Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development (OECD). Measuring Social Well-Being:
A Progress Report on the Development of Social Indicators. The OECD
Social Indicator Development Programme. Paris: OECD, 1976.
Statistics Canada. Econnections:
Linking the Environment and the Economy, Concepts, Sources and Methods
of the Canadian System of Environmental and Resource Accounts. Ottawa:
December 1997.
(1)
In GDP: One of the Great Inventions of the 20th Century,
Survey of Current Business (United StatesDepartment of Commerce),
January 2000, www.bea.doc.gov/bea/aw/0100od/maintext.htm.
(2)
Oli Hawrylyshyn, A Review of Recent Proposals for Modifying and
Extending the Measure of GNP, Statistics Canada, December 1974,
p. 12.
(3)
Quoted in GDP: One of the Great Inventions of the 20th Century.
(4)
Ibid.
(5)
Quoted in Clifford Cobb, Ted Halstead and Jonathan Rowe, If the
GDP is Up, Why is America Down? Atlantic Monthly, October
1995, p. 6 of Internet version, www.theatlantic.com/politics/ecbig/gdp.htm.
(6)
Quoted in GDP: One of the Great Inventions of the 20th Century.
(7)
William M. Daley, Press Conference Announcing the Commerce Departments
Achievement of the Century, 7 December 1999, in GDP: One of
the Great Inventions of the 20th Century.
(8)
Quoted in Blayne Haggart, Taking a New Look at the Bottom Line,
Catholic New Times, 28 February 1999, p. 13.
(9)
In GDP: One of the Great Inventions of the 20th Century.
(10)
Simon Kuznets, How to Judge Quality, New Republic,
20 October 1962, p. 29.
(11)
William Nordhaus and James Tobin, Is Growth Obsolete? in Economic
Growth, National Bureau of Economic Research General Series No. 96E,
New York: Columbia University Press, 1972, p. 4.
(12)
Quoted in Linda Baker, Real Wealth: The Genuine Progress Indicator
Could Provide an Environmental Measure of the Planets Health,
in E/The Environmental Magazine, May-June 1999, Internet edition,
www.emagazine.com/may-june_1999/0599feat2.html.
(13)
Ronald Colman, Background, in Measuring Sustainable Development:
Application of the Genuine Progress Index to Nova Scotia, Progress Report
and Future Directions, 16 January 1998, http://www.gpiatlantic.org/archive/background.html.
(14)
Hans Messinger, Measuring Sustainable Economic Welfare: Looking Beyond
GDP, Preliminary Draft, Statistics Canada, June 1997.
(15)
If the GDP is Up, Why is America Down? p. 8.
(16)
Quoted in United States Department of Commerce, GDP: One of the
Great Inventions of the 20th Century.
(17)
Oli Hawrylyshyn, A Review
, p. 24.
(18)
Blayne Haggart, Taking a New Look at the Bottom Line, p. 13.
(19)
If the GDP is Up, Why is America Down? p. 14.
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