Assessing global potential output growth: FB3-7/2017-3E-PDF

"This note estimates potential output growth for the global economy through 2019. While there is considerable uncertainty surrounding our estimates, overall we expect global potential output growth to rise modestly, from 3.1 per cent in 2016 to 3.4 per cent in 2019. This gradual increase is expected to be broad-based, reflecting growth-enhancing reforms in oil-importing emerging-market economies (excluding China) and in the euro area and the diminishing drag on investment in commodity-producing regions stemming from the 2014–15 decline in commodity prices. Potential output growth in the United States is expected to rise modestly through 2019 driven by a small recovery in trend total factor productivity growth. China is the only major economy where potential output growth is expected to slow, albeit moderately, as it gradually transitions to a more sustainable growth path featuring slower investment growth"--Abstract, p. [3] of cover.

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Department/Agency Bank of Canada.
Title Assessing global potential output growth
Series Title Staff analytical note = Note analytique du personnel,
Publication Type Series - View Master Record
Language [English]
Format Electronic
Electronic Document

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Note Cover title.
Date c2017.
Number of Pages 7 p. :
Catalogue Number
  • FB3-7/2017-3E-PDF
Subject Terms International economics, Economic development, Economic forecasting