00000nam##2200000za#4500 9.612949 CaOODSP 20211126112846 ta 150406|1996||||xxc||||| f|0| 0 eng|d 0-662-24416-8 1192-5434 CaOODSP eng n-cn--- FB3-2/96-5E Bank of Canada. A distant-early-warning model of inflation based on M1 disequilibria / by Jamie Armour et al., Department of Monetary and Financial Analysis. Ottawa - Ontario : Bank of Canada 1996. i, 17p. : graphs, references, table ; 28 cm. Working paper 1192-5434 96-5 "A vector error-correction model (VECM) that forecasts inflation between the current quarter and eight quarters ahead is found to provide significant leading information about inflation. The model focuses on the effects of deviations of M1 from its long-run demand but also includes, among other things, the influence of the exchange rate, a simple measure of the output gap and past prices."--Abstract. A vector error-correction model (VECM) that forecasts inflation between the current quarter and eight quarters ahead is found to provide significant leading information about inflation. The model focuses on the effects of deviations of M1 from its long-run demand but also includes, among other things, the influence of the exchange rate, a simple measure of the output gap and past prices.--Abstract Résumés en français Softcover 96-18 1996-05-03 Inflation gcpds Armour, Jamie A distant-early-warning model of inflation based on M1 disequilibria / (CaOODSP)9.571652 Working paper, 1192-5434 96-5 (CaOODSP)9.514622