00000nam 2200000za 4500 9.805240 CaOODSP 20221107135612 cr ||||||||||| 150406s1999 oncd ob f000 0 eng d CaOODSP eng eng fre n-cn--- Fs70-1/1999-110E-PDF Harvie, C. J. Inseason forecast model for 1SW salmon returning to the Saint John River, New Brunswick, in 1999 [electronic resource] / by C.J. Harvie and T.L. Marshall. Ottawa : Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 1999. 10 p. : fig., graphs, tables. Canadian Stock Assessment Secretariat research document, 1480-4883 ; 99/110 Includes bibliographical references (p. 5). Inseason forecasts of wild and hatchery 1SW Atlantic salmon returning to Mactaquac Dam on the Saint John River, New Brunswick, have been estimated using simple linear regression models. The response variable has been cumulative proportion of the returns to date and, for wild 1SW salmon, the predictor variable has been average daily mean discharge. Since 1995, discharge has become a less significant predictor in the wild 1SW model and the seasonal distribution of hatchery 1SW arrival has changed, frequently resulting in overestimation of returns. A new model, regressing end-of-season returns on returns-to-date, for both wild and hatchery components at three dates, was evaluated for forecast accuracy in a retrospective examination and found to more accurately forecast end-of-season returns. gccst Fisheries resources gccst Salt water fish gccst Fishing area gccst Fisheries management Marshall, T. L. Canada. Department of Fisheries and Oceans. Canada. Canadian Stock Assessment Secretariat. Canadian Stock Assessment Secretariat research document, 1480-4883 ; 99/110 (CaOODSP)9.507740 PDF 89 KB https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2015/mpo-dfo/Fs70-1-1999-110-eng.pdf