Run size forecasts for Fraser River sockeye and pink salmon in 1999 / Al Cass.: Fs70-1/1999-129E-PDF

Run size forecasts for 1999 Fraser River sockeye and pink salmon presented here are based on methods previously approved by PSARC. Forecasts are made for 18 individual sockeye stocks and four migratory timing / management groups. The spawning escapement for these stocks accounted for 96% of the estimated total Fraser River escapement in 1995 (1999 brood year of age-4 returns). The remaining escapement was from small populations without sufficient time series of data to produce quantitative forecasts. Based on escapements in the brood year, the major stocks anticipated in 1999 are Chilko, subdominant Late Shusap and Quesnel first off-cycle line sockeye. Forecasts are presented for age-4 and age-5 sockeye. The historical mean contribution of age-5 sockeye returns by year class is only 5%, however, the contribution of age-5s has been increasing in recent years. Forecasts of pink salmon are made for all Fraser pink populations combined.

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