Assessment of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) for Hecate Strait (5CD) and Queen Charlotte Sound (5AB) in 2013 / R.E. Forrest ... [et al.].: Fs70-5/2015-052E-PDF

The status of populations of Pacific Cod (Gadus macrocephalus) in Hecate Strait (Area 5CD) and Queen Charlotte Sound (Area 5AB) in British Columbia were assessed using Bayesian delay difference models. Despite large uncertainty, biomass in Hecate Strait is estimated to have been on a gradual increasing trajectory since 2001, but is below the median accepted Upper Stock Reference point for Area 5CD. Recruitment is estimated to have been below average for the past two decades. In Queen Charlotte Sound, biomass and recruitment are estimated to have been below the historical average since the mid-1990s. Model estimates of biomass and stock status in both management areas were very sensitive to prior assumptions about natural mortality, variance in the mean weight data, and the goodness of fit to the indices of abundance, particularly the commercial CPUE data. Harvest advice was produced in the form of decision tables that summarized the probability of breaching biomass-based and fishing-mortality based reference points for Area 5CD, and the probability of breaching fishing-mortality based reference points for Area 5AB, for a range of fixed 2014 catch levels.

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