00000nam 2200000za 4500 9.821051 CaOODSP 20240219183428 cr ||||||||||| 160714s2014 onc|||||o f000 0 eng d CaOODSP eng eng fre n-cn--- D68-3/322-2014E-PDF D68-3/C322-2014E-PDF Wanliss, James. Complex analysis of combat in Afghanistan [electronic resource] / by James Wanliss. [Ottawa] : Defence Research and Development Canada, c2014. vii, 17 p. : graphs, tables. Contract report ; 2014-C322 "December 2014." Includes bibliographical references. Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), a modern technique for examination of complex systems, was applied to combat related data in Afghanistan for the epoch 2002-2009. To detect long-term correlations in the presence of trends, we apply DFA that is able to systematically detect and overcome nonstationarities in the data at all timescales. The objective was to determine whether the nature of combat in Afghanistan, as observed by NATO forces, is fractal in its statistical nature. In every instance we found strong power law correlations in the data, and were able to extract accurate scaling exponents. On the other hand, a decrease in hostilities is likely to persist from one day to the next. We find a measure of predictability inherent in the dynamics of the combat system - there is a history or memory in the signal so that the future dynamics are not random but correlated with past events. This is seen most strongly for Att and d events, and only weakly for is and id events. gccst Technical reports Defence R&D Canada. Presbyterian College. Contract report (Defence R&D Canada) 2014-C322 (CaOODSP)9.802312 PDF 1.92 MB https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2016/rddc-drdc/D68-3-C322-2014-eng.pdf