Twenty-first century mean sea level rise scenarios for Canada / by Guoqi Han ... [et al.].: Fs97-18/313E-PDF

“Regional mean sea levels in many coastal locations off Canada have been rising in the past century, similar to the rise in global mean sea level. Existing scientific literature and high profile assessments (such as by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) give a wide range of estimates for future global mean sea level rise. At the regional or local scales, the ranges or uncertainties are even larger. What Canada needs is a thorough compilation of plausible sea level rise (SLR) scenarios at actionable scales (i.e., local or regional). Here we develop regional mean SLR scenarios for Canada, Low, Intermediate and High, based on three global mean SLR scenarios. The global scenarios are adjusted for three factors that affect local mean sea levels. The first factor is the net effect of the glacial isostatic adjustment from a model, with its vertical land motion further replaced by satellite Global Positioning System (GPS) data. The second is the steric and dynamic ocean effect obtained from the ensemble of global climate models. The third is the model-based land-ice melt effect. The most significant SLR will be along the southeastern Atlantic coast, the Pacific coast and the Beaufort Sea coast. Under the Intermediate Scenario and the High Scenario, the mean SLR relative to land may be up to 0.6 and 2.0 m over 2010-2100, respectively. Given the great range of uncertainty in mean SLR projections, the proposed multiple plausible scenarios allow coastal engineers and managers to consider multiple future conditions and develop multiple response options. According to the risk tolerance of infrastructure they may find the most suitable option”--Abstract.

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