00000nam 2200000za 4500 9.832335 CaOODSP 20221107145946 cr ||||||||||| 170214s2017 oncd obs f000 0 eng d CaOODSP eng eng fre n-cn--- FB3-5/2017-1E-PDF Corrigan, Paul R. (Paul Richard), 1976- Terms-of-trade and house price fluctuations [electronic resource] : a cross-country study / by Paul Corrigan. [Ottawa] : Bank of Canada, 2017. iii, 40 p. : charts (some in col.) Bank of Canada staff working paper, 1701-9397 ; 2017-1 "January 2017." Includes bibliographical references (p. 27-31). "Terms-of-trade shocks are known to be key drivers of business cycles in open economies. This paper argues that terms-of-trade shocks were also important for house price fluctuations in a panel of developed countries over the 1994–2015 period. In a panel vector error-correction model of house prices, household debt and real tradable prices, terms-of-trade shocks explain between 16 and 41 per cent of the long-run variance in house price growth in a typical country, and from 45 to 85 per cent of the long-run variance of the ratio of house prices to non-housing consumption. Most of the variation in the house price/consumption ratio is associated with changes in real import prices, with idiosyncratic shocks to real export prices playing a minor role. On average, a permanent 1 per cent decline in real import prices raises the ratio of real house prices to non-housing consumption by about 0.9 per cent"--Abstract, p. ii. Includes abstract in French. gccst Housing gccst Prices Bank of Canada. Staff working paper (Bank of Canada) 1701-9397 ; 2017-1 (CaOODSP)9.806221 PDF 2.83 MB https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2017/banque-bank-canada/FB3-5-2017-1-eng.pdf