00000nam 2200000za 4500 9.835080 CaOODSP 20221107150600 cr ||||||||||| 170411s2017 oncd ob f000 0 eng d CaOODSP eng eng fre n-cn--- FB3-5/2017-11E-PDF Wagner, Joel. Anticipated technology shocks [electronic resource] : a re-evaluation using cointegrated technologies / by Joel Wagner. [Ottawa] : Bank of Canada, 2017. [ii], 33 p. : charts Bank of Canada staff working paper, 1701-9397 ; 2017-11 "April 2017." Includes bibliographical references (p. 20-21). "Two approaches have been taken in the literature to evaluate the relative importance of news shocks as a source of business cycle volatility. The first is an empirical approach that performs a structural vector autoregression to assess the relative importance of news shocks, while the second is a structural-model-based approach. The first approach suggests that anticipated technology shocks are an important source of business cycle volatility; the second finds anticipated technology shocks are incapable of generating any business cycle volatility. This paper challenges the latter conclusion by presenting a structural news shock model adapted to reproduce the cointegrating relationship between total factor productivity and the relative price of investment. With cointegrated neutral and investment-specific technology, anticipated shocks to the common stochastic trend explain approximately 22%, 32%, 34% and 20% of the variance of output, investment, hours and consumption in the United States, respectively, reconciling the discrepancy between theory and data"--Abstract, p. [ii]. Includes abstract in French. gccst Technological innovation gccst Economic analysis gccst Economic impact Bank of Canada. Staff working paper (Bank of Canada) 1701-9397 ; 2017-11 (CaOODSP)9.806221 PDF 575 KB https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2017/banque-bank-canada/FB3-5-2017-11-eng.pdf