Language selection

Search


Which model to forecast the target rate? / by Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine and Jianjian Jin.FB3-5/2017-60E-PDF

"Specifications of the Federal Reserve target rate that have more realistic features mitigate in-sample over-fitting and are favored in the data. Imposing a positivity constraint and discrete increments significantly increases the accuracy of model out-of-sample forecasts for the level and volatility of the Federal Reserve target rates. In addition, imposing the constraints produces different estimates of the response coefficients. In particular, a new and simple specification, where the target rate is the maximum between zero and the prediction of an ordered-choice Probit model, is more accurate and has higher response coefficients to information about inflation and unemployment"--Abstract, p. ii.

Permanent link to this Catalogue record:
publications.gc.ca/pub?id=9.849167&sl=0

Publication information
Department/Agency
  • Bank of Canada.
TitleWhich model to forecast the target rate? / by Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine and Jianjian Jin.
Series title
  • Bank of Canada staff working paper, 1701-9397 ; 2017-60
Publication typeMonograph - View Master Record
Language[English]
FormatDigital text
Electronic document
Note(s)
  • "December 2017."
  • Includes bibliographical references.
  • Text in English, abstract in English and French.
Publishing information
  • Ottawa : Bank of Canada, 2017.
Author / Contributor
  • Feunou, Bruno.
  • Jin, Jianjian.
  • Fontaine, Jean-Sébastien.
Descriptionii, 40 p. : graphs
Catalogue number
  • FB3-5/2017-60E-PDF
Subject terms
Request alternate formats
To request an alternate format of a publication, complete the Government of Canada Publications email form. Use the form’s “question or comment” field to specify the requested publication.

Page details