00000nam 2200000za 4500 9.851024 CaOODSP 20221107154308 cr ||||||||||| 180201s2018 oncd obs f000 0 eng d CaOODSP eng eng fre n-cn--- FB3-5/2018-4E-PDF Kilian, Lutz. Modeling fluctuations in the global demand for commodities [electronic resource] / by Lutz Kilian and Xiaoqing Zhou. [Ottawa] : Bank of Canada, 2018. ii, 62 p. : col. charts. Bank of Canada staff working paper, 1701-9397 ; 2018-4 "January 2018." Includes bibliographical references (p. 45-51). “Although this question arises frequently in applied work, there is no universal agreement on how to quantify cyclical variation in global real economic activity. We show how such a measure must be constructed in order to be useful for modeling industrial commodity prices. We compare a wide range of alternative measures discussed in the literature and assess their merits for applied work on commodity prices. Among these indicators, we stress the advantages of the widely used Kilian index of global real economic activity, of indices based on real commodity prices and, to a lesser extent, of proxies for global industrial production"--Non-technical summary, p. 1. Includes abstract in French. gccst International trade gccst Commodities gccst Prices gccst Statistical analysis Zhou, Xiaoqing. Bank of Canada. Staff working paper (Bank of Canada) 1701-9397 ; 2018-4 (CaOODSP)9.806221 PDF 1.58 MB https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2018/banque-bank-canada/FB3-5-2018-4-eng.pdf