Validation of a spruce budworm phenology model across environmental and genetic gradients : applications for budworm control and climate change predictions : interim report / Jean-Noël Candau … [et al].: Fo123-2/20-2018E-PDF

"The ability to accurately predict spruce budworm phenology is important in many aspects of the management of this insect. The most accurate model currently available to predict the phenology of spruce budworm over large areas is BIOSIM’s Spruce Budworm Biology model (Régnière et al. 2014). This model has been tested against field observations on several occasions. In most cases, it was able to predict budworm phenology with exceptional accuracy. However, it is important to note that the data used so far to develop and validate this model have come from a fairly limited geographic range. A comparison with the current distribution of spruce budworm ultimately questions the limits of applicability of the model. This project investigates the variability of spruce budworm development rates for each larval stage across the geographic distribution of the insect. Particular attention is given to detecting clinal variation in development rates related to environmental and/or genetic gradients. Comparing the observed rates to Régnière’s model for a wide distribution of locations will help better define the geographic limits of applicability of the model"--Introd., p. 7-8.

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