00000nam 2200000za 4500 9.861154 CaOODSP 20221107160701 cr ||||||||||| 180824s2018 oncd ob f000 0 eng d CaOODSP eng eng fre FB3-5/2018-39E-PDF Jain, Monica. Sluggish forecasts [electronic resource] / by Monica Jain. [Ottawa] : Bank of Canada, 2018. ii, 26 p. : col. charts. Bank of Canada staff working paper, 1701-9397 ; 2018-39 "August 2018." Includes bibliographical references. "Given the influence that agents’ expectations have on key macroeconomic variables, it is surprising that very few papers have tried to extrapolate agents’ “true” expectations directly from the data. This paper presents one such approach, starting with the hypothesis that there is sluggishness in inflation and real GDP growth forecasts. Using individual-level data on 29 U.S. professional forecasters from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, I find that some degree of sluggishness is present in about 40% of inflation forecasts and in 60% of real GDP growth forecasts. The estimates of sluggishness are then used to recover a series of sluggishness-adjusted expectations that are more volatile and, at times, more accurate than the raw survey forecasts"--Abstract, p. ii. Includes abstract in French. gccst Gross domestic product gccst Inflation gccst Forecasting Bank of Canada. Staff working paper (Bank of Canada) 1701-9397 ; 2018-39. (CaOODSP)9.806221 PDF 446 KB https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2018/banque-bank-canada/FB3-5-2018-39-eng.pdf