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| 01843nam 2200301za 4500 |
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| 001 | 9.861154 |
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| 003 | CaOODSP |
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| 005 | 20221107160701 |
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| 007 | cr ||||||||||| |
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| 008 | 180824s2018 oncd ob f000 0 eng d |
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| 040 | |aCaOODSP|beng |
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| 041 | |aeng|bfre |
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| 086 | 1 |aFB3-5/2018-39E-PDF |
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| 100 | 1 |aJain, Monica. |
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| 245 | 10|aSluggish forecasts |h[electronic resource] / |cby Monica Jain. |
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| 260 | |a[Ottawa] : |bBank of Canada, |c2018. |
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| 300 | |aii, 26 p. : |bcol. charts. |
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| 490 | 1 |aBank of Canada staff working paper, |x1701-9397 ; |v2018-39 |
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| 500 | |a"August 2018." |
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| 504 | |aIncludes bibliographical references. |
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| 520 | 3 |a"Given the influence that agents’ expectations have on key macroeconomic variables, it is surprising that very few papers have tried to extrapolate agents’ “true” expectations directly from the data. This paper presents one such approach, starting with the hypothesis that there is sluggishness in inflation and real GDP growth forecasts. Using individual-level data on 29 U.S. professional forecasters from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, I find that some degree of sluggishness is present in about 40% of inflation forecasts and in 60% of real GDP growth forecasts. The estimates of sluggishness are then used to recover a series of sluggishness-adjusted expectations that are more volatile and, at times, more accurate than the raw survey forecasts"--Abstract, p. ii. |
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| 546 | |aIncludes abstract in French. |
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| 692 | 07|2gccst|aGross domestic product |
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| 692 | 07|2gccst|aInflation |
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| 692 | 07|2gccst|aForecasting |
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| 710 | 2 |aBank of Canada. |
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| 830 | #0|aStaff working paper (Bank of Canada)|x1701-9397 ; |v2018-39.|w(CaOODSP)9.806221 |
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| 856 | 40|qPDF|s446 KB|uhttps://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2018/banque-bank-canada/FB3-5-2018-39-eng.pdf |
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