00000nam 2200000za 4500 9.862373 CaOODSP 20221107161011 cr ||||||||||| 180926s2018 oncd ob f000 0 eng d CaOODSP eng eng fre n-cn--- FB3-6/2018-9E-PDF Chernis, Tony. Nowcasting Canadian economic activity in an uncertain environment [electronic resource] / by Tony Chernis and Rodrigo Sekkel. [Ottawa] : Bank of Canada, 2018. ii, 39 p. : col. charts. Bank of Canada staff discussion paper, 1914-0568 ; 2018-9 "August 2018." Includes bibliographical references. "This paper studies short-term forecasting of Canadian real GDP and its expenditure components using combinations of nowcasts from different models. Starting with a medium-sized data set, we use a suite of common nowcasting tools for quarterly real GDP and its expenditure components. Using a two-step combination procedure, the nowcasts are first combined within model classes and then merged into a single point forecast using simple performance-based weighting methods. We find that no single model clearly dominates over all forecast horizons, subsamples and target variables. This highlights that when operating in an uncertain environment, where the choice of model is not clear, combining forecasts is a prudent strategy"--Abstract, p. ii. Includes abstract in French. gccst Gross domestic product gccst Economic forecasting Sekkel, Rodrigo M. Bank of Canada. Staff discussion paper (Bank of Canada) 1914-0568 ; 2018-9. (CaOODSP)9.806273 PDF 875 KB https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2018/banque-bank-canada/FB3-6-2018-9-eng.pdf