000 02213cam  2200349za 4500
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008181211s2018    oncd    ob   f000 0 eng d
040 |aCaOODSP|beng
041 |aeng|bfre
043 |an-cn---
0861 |aFB3-6/2018-14E-PDF
1001 |aPichette, Lise.
24513|aAn alternative estimate of Canadian potential output |h[electronic resource] : |bthe multivariate state-space framework / |cby Lise Pichette, Maria Bernier and Marie-Noëlle Robitaille.
24630|aMultivariate state-space framework
260 |a[Ottawa] : |bBank of Canada, |c2018.
300 |aiv, [13] p. : |bcol. charts.
4901 |aBank of Canada staff discussion paper, |x1914-0568 ; |v2018-14
500 |a"November 2018."
504 |aIncludes bibliographic references.
5203 |a"In this paper, we extend the state-space methodology proposed by Blagrave et al. (2015) and decompose Canadian potential output into trend labour productivity and trend labour input. As in Blagrave et al. (2015), we include output growth and inflation expectations from consensus forecasts to help refine our estimates. Our alternative model, which we call the multivariate state-space framework (MSSF), adds to the Bank’s existing set of tools for estimating potential output and the output gap in Canada. We find that while the MSSF shares similar dynamics to the main approaches used by the Bank, it also indicates that the economy experienced greater excess supply in both the 1990 and 2008 recessions than the Bank’s other tools would suggest. Finally, the MSSF estimates that the Canadian economy has been operating close to capacity since the end of 2017"--Abstract, p. iv.
546 |aIncludes abstract in French.
69207|2gccst|aProductivity
69207|2gccst|aInflation
693 4|aPotential output
7001 |aBernier, Maria.
7001 |aRobitaille, Marie-Noëlle.
7102 |aBank of Canada.
830#0|aStaff discussion paper (Bank of Canada)|x1914-0568 ; |v2018-14.|w(CaOODSP)9.806273
85640|qPDF|s543 KB|uhttps://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2018/banque-bank-canada/FB3-6-2018-14-eng.pdf