Global commodity markets and rebalancing in China : the case of copper / by Jeannine Bailliu, Doga Bilgin, Kun Mo, Kurt Niquidet and Benjamin Sawatzky.: FB3-6/2019-3E-PDF
"Given that China accounts for about half of global copper consumption, it is reasonable to expect that any significant change in Chinese copper consumption will have an impact on the global market. This paper examines the likely impact of the rebalancing of the Chinese economy on its copper consumption over the next decade, focusing on the relationship between the copper intensity of GDP and the share of investment in GDP. We use a panel smooth transition regression model to account for potential non-linearities in this relationship at different levels of urbanization and income. Our findings suggest that there is indeed a significant relationship between a country’s copper intensity of GDP and its investment share. Our baseline rebalancing scenario for China implies that copper intensity in China has already peaked and is expected to decline steadily through the next decade. This anticipated reduction in Chinese copper intensity is the result of the dampening impact of rebalancing and higher per capita income on copper intensity, which more than offsets the upward pressure stemming from the ongoing process of urbanization. An exploration of alternative rebalancing scenarios suggests that China’s rebalancing path could have a significant impact on global copper consumption"--Abstract, page iv.
Permanent link to this Catalogue record:
publications.gc.ca/pub?id=9.871141&sl=0
| Department/Agency | Bank of Canada. |
|---|---|
| Title | Global commodity markets and rebalancing in China : the case of copper / by Jeannine Bailliu, Doga Bilgin, Kun Mo, Kurt Niquidet and Benjamin Sawatzky. |
| Variant title | Case of copper |
| Series title | Bank of Canada staff discussion paper, 1914-0568 ; 2019-3 |
| Publication type | Series - View Master Record |
| Language | [English] |
| Format | Electronic |
| Electronic document | |
| Note(s) | "April 2019." Includes bibliographical references. Includes abstract in French. |
| Publishing information | Ottawa, Ontario, Canada : Bank of Canada = Banque du Canada, 2019. ©2019 |
| Author / Contributor | Bailliu, Jeannine N., author. Bilgin, Doga, author. Mo, Kun, author. Niquidet, Kurt, author. Sawatzky, Benjamin, author. |
| Description | 1 online resource (iv, 26 pages) : graphs. |
| Catalogue number |
|
| Subject terms | Economic analysis International trade Metals |
Request alternate formats
To request an alternate format of a publication, complete the Government of Canada Publications email form. Use the form’s “question or comment” field to specify the requested publication.- Date modified: