A structural model of the global oil market / by Reinhard Ellwanger.: FB3-7/2019-17E-PDF

"This note presents a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model of the global oil market. The model identifies four types of shocks with different economic interpretations: oil supply shocks, oil-market-specific demand shocks, storage demand shocks and shocks to global economic growth. The historical decomposition of oil price fluctuations suggests that oil supply shocks were the dominant force during the 2014–15 oil price decline. Several examples illustrate the model’s usefulness for conditional forecasts of oil market variables under different scenarios for global GDP growth and oil consumption"--Abstract, page ii.

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Publication information
Department/Agency Bank of Canada.
Title A structural model of the global oil market / by Reinhard Ellwanger.
Series title Staff analytical note = Note analytique du personnel, 2369-9639 ; 2019-17
Publication type Series - View Master Record
Language [English]
Format Electronic
Electronic document
Note(s) Title from cover.
Includes bibliographical references.
Includes abstract in French.
Publishing information Ottawa, Ontario, Canada : Bank of Canada = Banque du Canada, 2019.
Author / Contributor Ellwanger, Reinhard, author.
Description 1 online resource (ii, 10 unnumbered pages) : graphs.
Catalogue number
  • FB3-7/2019-17E-PDF
Subject terms Economic analysis
Petroleum industry
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