Technical supplement : production of demographic estimates for the first quarter of 2020 in the context of COVID-19.: CS91-0015/15E-PDF

"The production of demographic estimates is based on the use of several well-documented methods that have been presented and discussed with the various partners and collaborators of the Demographic Estimates Program (DEP). These methods rely on administrative data sources that are not necessarily optimal in terms of timeliness, completeness and coverage. The models used in the production processes make it possible to produce reliable and accurate population estimates despite these constraints. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, the resulting crisis may have invalidated some of the assumptions of the models used in the production of population estimates. The DEP is committed to continuing to produce demographic estimates of the best possible quality, even in the current pandemic context. To achieve this, the methods of estimation of each of the demographic components have been re-evaluated. Where necessary, adjustments have been made to the usual methods. This document outlines the re-evaluation process that was conducted for each demographic component in the circumstances surrounding the emergence of the pandemic. The context and usual method are described for each component. Relevant considerations in reassessing the estimates for the first quarter of 2020 are then presented. Following this, the factors justifying the choice of whether or not to make an adjustment are presented, with a description of the adjustment if applicable. Finally, the strategies under consideration for the production of the estimates for the second quarter of 2020 are briefly discussed"--Introduction, page 3.

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