Forward guidance and expectation formation : a narrative approach / by Christopher S. Sutherland.: FB3-5/2020-40E-PDF
"How forward guidance influences expectations is not yet fully understood. To study this issue, I construct central bank data that includes forward guidance and its attributes, central bank projections, and quantitative easing, which I combine with survey data. I find that, in response to a change in forward guidance, forecasters revise their interest rate forecasts in the intended direction by five basis points on average. The effect is not attributable to central bank information effects. Instead, when forming rate expectations, forecasters place full weight on their own inflation and growth forecasts and zero weight on those of the central bank"--Abstract, page ii.
Permanent link to this Catalogue record:
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| Department/Agency | Bank of Canada, issuing body. |
|---|---|
| Title | Forward guidance and expectation formation : a narrative approach / by Christopher S. Sutherland. |
| Series title | Staff working paper = Document de travail du personnel, 1701-9397 ; 2020-40 |
| Publication type | Series - View Master Record |
| Language | [English] |
| Format | Electronic |
| Electronic document | |
| Note(s) | Cover title. "Last updated: September 28, 2020." Includes bibliographical references (pages 44-48). |
| Publishing information | Ottawa, Ontario, Canada : Bank of Canada = Banque du Canada, 2020. ©2020 |
| Author / Contributor | Sutherland, Christopher S., author. |
| Description | 1 online resource (ii, 48 pages) : graphs. |
| Catalogue number |
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| Subject terms | Banks and banking, Central. Transmission mechanism (Monetary policy) Banques centrales. Mécanismes de transmission (Politique monétaire) |
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