00000nam 2200000zi 4500 9.894222 CaOODSP 20250218144624 m o d f cr cn||||||||| 201202t20202020onc ob f000 0 eng d CaOODSP eng rda CaOODSP eng eng fre n-us--- FB3-6/2020-12E-PDF Bootsma, James, author. 2020 US neutral rate assessment / by James Bootsma, Thomas J. Carter, Xin Scott Chen, Chris Hajzler and Argyn Toktamyssov. Ottawa, Ontario, Canada : Bank of Canada = Banque du Canada, 2020. ©2020 1 online resource (ii, 9 pages). text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier Staff discussion paper = Document d'analyse du personnel, 1914-0568 ; 2020-12 "Last updated: December 1, 2020." Includes bibliographical references (page 9). "This paper presents Bank of Canada staff's current assessment of the US neutral rate, along with a newly developed set of models on which that assessment is based. The overall assessment is that the US neutral rate currently lies in a range of 1.75 to 2.75 percent. This represents a decline of 50 basis points relative to the range judged at the time of the Bank's last neutral rate update in April 2019. Roughly half of this decline reflects an assessment of conditions prevailing in late 2019 and is thus unrelated to the COVID-19 pandemic. The other half reflects the balance of several key channels through which the COVID-19 shock is likely to influence US interest rates over the years ahead, including its impacts on potential output growth, inequality, demand for safe assets and the level of US government debt. Results from the new models specifically point to upward pressure from higher government debt being more than offset by downward pressure from lower potential output growth, higher inequality and heightened demand for safe assets"--Abstract, page ii. Includes abstracts in English and French. Interest rates United States Econometric models. Monetary policy United States. COVID-19 (Disease) Economic aspects United States. Epidemics Economic aspects United States. Taux d'intérêt États-Unis Modèles économétriques. Politique monétaire États-Unis. COVID-19 Aspect economique États-Unis. Pandémie de COVID-19, 2020-2023 Aspect economique États-Unis. Bank of Canada, issuing body. Staff discussion paper (Bank of Canada) 2020-12. (CaOODSP)9.806273 PDF 520 KB https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2020/banque-bank-canada/FB3-6-2020-12-eng.pdf