00000nam 2200000zi 4500 9.894717 CaOODSP 20221107173824 m o d f cr |n||||||||| 201215t20202020onc ob f|0| 0 eng d CaOODSP eng rda CaOODSP n-cn--- FB3-6/2020-14E-PDF Cheung, Calista, author. Can the Business Outlook Survey help improve estimates of the Canadian output gap? / by Calista Cheung, Luke Frymire and Lise Pichette. Ottawa, Ontario, Canada : Bank of Canada = Banque du Canada, 2020. ©2020 1 online resource (ii, 22 pages) text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier Staff discussion paper = Document d'analyse du personnel, 1914-0568 ; 2020-14 Cover title. Includes bibliographical references (pages 20-21). "The output gap is a key variable used to assess inflationary pressures in the economy, but estimates in real time are subject to uncertainty and often revised significantly. This paper assesses whether questions in the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey (BOS) can provide useful signals for broader capacity pressures in the economy. The concept of capacity pressures is captured in the BOS through various questions on firms’ ability to meet demand and labour shortages. In particular, we examine whether these BOS questions, as well as a summary measure of the BOS results, produce information that can be used to improve real-time output gap estimates for Canada. We find that survey data help predict the various measures of the output gap used by the Bank of Canada. This supports the Bank’s practice of using information contained in the BOS to refine its assessment of the current state of the economic cycle. It further provides a framework for incorporating the survey information into quantitative estimates of the output gap"--Abstract. Business cycles Canada Econometric models. Cycles économiques Canada Modèles économétriques. Bank of Canada, issuing body. Staff discussion paper (Bank of Canada) 2020-14. (CaOODSP)9.806273 PDF 675 KB https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2020/banque-bank-canada/FB3-6-2020-14-eng.pdf