00000nam 2200000zi 4500 9.895628 CaOODSP 20250218144348 m o d f cr cn||||||||| 210125e20210121onca ob f000 0 eng d CaOODSP eng rda CaOODSP n-cn--- y0y2 FB3-5/2021-2E-PDF Chapman, James T. E., author. Using payments data to nowcast macroeconomic variables during the onset of COVID-19 / by James T.E. Chapman and Ajit Desai. Ottawa, Ontario, Canada : Bank of Canada = Banque du Canada, January 21, 2021. ©2021 1 online resource (ii, 40 pages) : colour illustrations. text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier Staff working paper = Document de travail du personnel, 1701-9397 ; 2021-2 Includes bibliographical references (pages 30-33). "The COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting public health mitigation have caused large-scale economic disruptions globally. During this time, there is an increased need to predict the macroeconomy's short-term dynamics to ensure the effective implementation of fiscal and monetary policy. However, economic prediction during a crisis is challenging because of the unprecedented economic impact, which increases the unreliability of traditionally used linear models that use lagged data. We help address these challenges by using timely retail payments system data in linear and nonlinear machine learning models. We find that compared to a benchmark, our model has a roughly 15 to 45% reduction in Root Mean Square Error when used for macroeconomic nowcasting during the global financial crisis. For nowcasting during the COVID-19 shock, our model predictions are much closer to the official estimates"--Abstract, page ii. Electronic funds transfers Canada Econometric models. COVID-19 (Disease) Economic aspects Canada. COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020-2023 Economic aspects Canada. Monnaie électronique Canada Modèles économétriques. COVID-19 Aspect économique Canada. Pandémie de COVID-19, 2020-2023 Aspect économique Canada. Bank of Canada, issuing body. Staff working paper (Bank of Canada) 2021-2. (CaOODSP)9.806221 PDF 1.99 MB https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2021/banque-bank-canada/FB3-5-2021-2-eng.pdf