Measuring the correlation between COVID-19 restrictions and economic activity / by Nada Habli and Ryan Macdonald, Sean Clarke, Carter McCormack and Jessica Dekker.: CS11-633/2022-40E-PDF

"This paper develops COVID-19 restrictions indexes for all Canadian provinces and territories. Indexes are produced daily and illustrate the overall level of restrictions and differences in restrictions on the vaccinated and unvaccinated portions of the population. The indexes show that restrictions in Ontario and Quebec were more stringent and remained in force for longer and at higher levels than in British Columbia and Alberta. They also illustrate the more stringent restrictions faced by the unvaccinated population as vaccination campaigns unfolded. When the daily indexes are converted to a monthly frequency, they show that after the first wave of COVID-19, increasing the severity of restrictions slows growth in economic activity as long as the severity of these restrictions remains below a threshold value. After the threshold value is reached, tighter restrictions are associated with declines in economic activity"--Abstract, page 5.

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