Risk scenario analysis - November 2022.: YN5-260/2022E-PDF
"This report provides a scenario analysis to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal implications of central banks over-tightening monetary policy, which was flagged as a key risk in PBO's October Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO). … In our risk scenario we assess the impacts of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada continuing to rapidly raise their policy interest rates, bringing them to 5.25 per cent (top of the target range) and 5.0 per cent, respectively, in early 2023. In such a scenario, we assume that policy rates will remain elevated at this level through 2023 before the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada begin to lower them in early 2024. In addition to the temporary increase in policy rates (of 100 basis points) above our October EFO levels, we incorporate weaker consumer and business confidence, as well as lower commodity prices resulting from a more severe global economic downturn. We assume that the Government does not introduce or undertake any new measures in response to the economic downturn in our risk scenario"--Summary, page 1.
Permanent link to this Catalogue record:
publications.gc.ca/pub?id=9.918003&sl=0
| Department/Agency | Canada. Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer, issuing body. |
|---|---|
| Title | Risk scenario analysis - November 2022. |
| Publication type | Monograph |
| Language | [English] |
| Other language editions | [French] |
| Format | Electronic |
| Electronic document | |
| Note(s) | Issued also in French under title: Analyse de scénario de risque - novembre 2022. "RP-2223-020-S_e." Includes bibliographical references. |
| Publishing information | [Ottawa] : Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer = Bureau du Directeur parlementaire du budget, November 10, 2022. ©2022 |
| Description | 1 online resource (12 pages) : illustrations |
| Catalogue number |
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| Subject terms | Monetary policy -- Economic aspects -- Canada. Inflation targeting -- Economic aspects -- Canada. Interest rates -- Economic aspects -- Canada. |
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