Post-pandemic provisional federal population forecasts / prepared by Larry Motiuk and Ben Vuong.: PS82-4/23-23E-PDF

"Correctional Service of Canada (CSC) regularly refreshes its provisional federal institutional and community population forecasts. As previously noted, a major assumption in any forecasting exercise is that things will remain the same, which has not been the case in recent years when courts slowed or closed completely resulting in a decrease in admissions. Consequently, over the course of two and half fiscal years marked by the COVID-19 pandemic, CSC exhibited unprecedented declines in the in-custody (-1,392 or 10.1%) and community supervision (-903 or 9.6%) populations. While provisional forecasts were undertaken in 2022-23, the reopening of courts and very sharp rise in federal admissions coupled with a decline in the number of releases it appears that the in-custody population is quickly returning to pre-pandemic levels and normal growth. The following provides an update on the previous population estimates with refreshed 10-year estimates to fiscal year-end 2032-33."

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publications.gc.ca/pub?id=9.925904&sl=0

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