00000nam 2200000zi 4500 9.927275 CaOODSP 20241210082403 m o d f cr cn||||||||| 230428t20232023oncd ob f000 0 eng d CaOODSP eng rda CaOODSP eng eng fre n-cn--- FB3-6/2023-19E-PDF Azizova, Chinara, author. Forecasting risks to the Canadian economic outlook at a daily frequency / by Chinara Azizova, Bruno Feunou and James Kyeong. Ottawa, Ontario, Canada : Bank of Canada = Banque du Canada, 2023. ©2023 1 online resource (ii, 36 pages) : charts. text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier Staff discussion paper = Document d'analyse du personnel, 1914-0568 ; 2023-19 "Last updated: September 13, 2023." Includes bibliographical references (pages 35-36). "In this paper, we estimate the distribution of future inflation and growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) for the Canadian economy at a daily frequency. To do this, we model the conditional moments (mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis) of inflation and GDP growth as moving averages of economic and financial conditions. Then, we translate the conditional moments into conditional distributions using a flexible parametric distribution known as the skewed generalized error distribution. We show that the probabilities of inflation and GDP growth derived from the conditional distributions accurately reflect realized outcomes during the sample period from 2002 to 2022. Our methodology offers daily frequency forecasts with flexible forecasting horizons. This is highly useful in an environment of elevated uncertainty surrounding the inflation and growth outlook"--Abstract, page ii. Includes abstracts in English and French. Bank of Canada. Banque du Canada. Banks and banking Canada. Finance Canada. Gross domestic product Canada Forecasting. Gross domestic product Canada Econometric models. Banques Canada. Finances Canada. Produit intérieur brut Canada Prévision. Produit intérieur brut Canada Modèles économétriques. Bank of Canada, issuing body. Staff discussion paper (Bank of Canada) 2023-19. (CaOODSP)9.806273 PDF 1.11 MB https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2023/banque-bank-canada/FB3-6-2023-19-eng.pdf