|
000
| 02746cam 2200457zi 4500 |
|---|
| 001 | 9.927275 |
|---|
| 003 | CaOODSP |
|---|
| 005 | 20230914153227 |
|---|
| 006 | m o d f |
|---|
| 007 | cr cn||||||||| |
|---|
| 008 | 230428t20232023oncd ob f000 0 eng d |
|---|
| 040 | |aCaOODSP|beng|erda|cCaOODSP |
|---|
| 041 | |aeng|beng|bfre |
|---|
| 043 | |an-cn--- |
|---|
| 086 | 1 |aFB3-6/2023-19E-PDF |
|---|
| 100 | 1 |aAzizova, Chinara, |eauthor. |
|---|
| 245 | 10|aForecasting risks to the Canadian economic outlook at a daily frequency / |cby Chinara Azizova, Bruno Feunou and James Kyeong. |
|---|
| 264 | 1|aOttawa, Ontario, Canada : |bBank of Canada = Banque du Canada, |c2023. |
|---|
| 264 | 4|c©2023 |
|---|
| 300 | |a1 online resource (ii, 36 pages) : |bcharts. |
|---|
| 336 | |atext|btxt|2rdacontent |
|---|
| 337 | |acomputer|bc|2rdamedia |
|---|
| 338 | |aonline resource|bcr|2rdacarrier |
|---|
| 490 | 1 |aStaff discussion paper = |aDocument d'analyse du personnel, |x1914-0568 ; |v2023-19 |
|---|
| 500 | |a"Last updated: September 13, 2023." |
|---|
| 504 | |aIncludes bibliographical references (pages 35-36). |
|---|
| 520 | 3 |a"In this paper, we estimate the distribution of future inflation and growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) for the Canadian economy at a daily frequency. To do this, we model the conditional moments (mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis) of inflation and GDP growth as moving averages of economic and financial conditions. Then, we translate the conditional moments into conditional distributions using a flexible parametric distribution known as the skewed generalized error distribution. We show that the probabilities of inflation and GDP growth derived from the conditional distributions accurately reflect realized outcomes during the sample period from 2002 to 2022. Our methodology offers daily frequency forecasts with flexible forecasting horizons. This is highly useful in an environment of elevated uncertainty surrounding the inflation and growth outlook"--Abstract, page ii. |
|---|
| 546 | |aIncludes abstracts in English and French. |
|---|
| 610 | 20|aBank of Canada. |
|---|
| 610 | 26|aBanque du Canada. |
|---|
| 650 | 0|aBanks and banking|zCanada. |
|---|
| 650 | 0|aFinance|zCanada. |
|---|
| 650 | 0|aGross domestic product|zCanada|xForecasting. |
|---|
| 650 | 0|aGross domestic product|zCanada|xEconometric models. |
|---|
| 650 | 6|aBanques|zCanada. |
|---|
| 650 | 6|aFinances|zCanada. |
|---|
| 650 | 6|aProduit intérieur brut|zCanada|xPrévision. |
|---|
| 650 | 6|aProduit intérieur brut|zCanada|xModèles économétriques. |
|---|
| 710 | 2 |aBank of Canada, |eissuing body. |
|---|
| 830 | #0|aStaff discussion paper (Bank of Canada)|v2023-19.|w(CaOODSP)9.806273 |
|---|
| 856 | 40|qPDF|s1.11 MB|uhttps://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2023/banque-bank-canada/FB3-6-2023-19-eng.pdf |
|---|