Predicting changes in Canadian housing markets with machine learning / by Johan Brannlund, Helen Lao, Maureen MacIsaac and Jing Yang.: FB3-6/2023-21E-PDF
"This paper examines whether machine learning (ML) algorithms can outperform a linear model in predicting monthly growth in Canada of both house prices and existing home sales. The aim is to apply two widely used ML techniques (support vector regression and multilayer perceptron) in economic forecasting to understand their scopes and limitations. We find that the two ML algorithms can perform better than a linear model in forecasting house prices and resales. However, the improvement in forecast accuracy is not always statistically significant. Therefore, we cannot systematically conclude using traditional time-series data that the ML models outperform the linear model in a significant way. Future research should explore non-traditional data sets to fully take advantage of ML methods"--Abstract, page iii.
Permanent link to this Catalogue record:
publications.gc.ca/pub?id=9.928089&sl=0
| Department/Agency | Bank of Canada, issuing body. |
|---|---|
| Title | Predicting changes in Canadian housing markets with machine learning / by Johan Brannlund, Helen Lao, Maureen MacIsaac and Jing Yang. |
| Series title | Staff discussion paper = Document d'analyse du personnel, 1914-0568 ; 2023-21 |
| Publication type | Series - View Master Record |
| Language | [English] |
| Format | Electronic |
| Electronic document | |
| Note(s) | ISSN assigned to different series. "Last updated: September 29, 2023." Includes bibliographical references (page 15). Includes abstracts in English and French. |
| Publishing information | [Ottawa] : Bank of Canada = Banque du Canada, 2023. ©2023 |
| Author / Contributor | Brannlund, Johan, author. |
| Description | 1 online resource (iii, 15 pages) : illustrations (chiefly colour). |
| Catalogue number |
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| Subject terms | Housing -- Prices -- Canada -- Forecasting. House buying -- Canada -- Forecasting. Support vector machines. Perceptrons. Logement -- Prix -- Canada -- Prévision. Habitations -- Achat -- Canada -- Prévision. Machines à vecteurs supports. Perceptrons. |
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