Numerical simulation of an Alaska 1964-type tsunami with application to Boundary Bay in the southern Strait of Georgia / Isaac Fine, Richard Thomson, and Nicky Hastings.: Fs97-18/367E-PDF

"A high-resolution, nested-grid tsunami model has been used to simulate the distribution of tsunami waves and wave-induced currents that will be generated in Boundary Bay in the event of a magnitude Mw 9.0, 1964-type Alaska earthquake. The model uses an advanced tsunami source distribution and high-resolution bathymetric and topographic data in Boundary Bay. We validated the model by comparing the simulated tsunami waves with those observed during the 1964 event at the Point Atkinson tide gauge. The modelled record closely fits the observed wave forms and amplitudes. According to the model, the tsunami in Boundary Bay will reach 0.45 m above the tidal level at the time the waves arrive, with the first wave being the highest. Tsunami waves along the Semiahmoo coast will be up to 0.35 m. The distribution of tsunami wave amplitudes within Boundary Bay will be non-uniform, with highest waves occurring toward the head of the bay. Moderate strength currents will be induced at the entrance to Drayton Harbor (up to 1.5 m/s) and at the mouth of Campbell River (up to 0.5 m/s). At other locations, wave-induced current will not exceed 0.3 m/s. Even allowing for a 50% safety factor, the risk of flooding in Boundary Bay by an Alaska 1964-type tsunami, is considered to be low"--Abstract, page iv.

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publications.gc.ca/pub?id=9.930233&sl=0

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