Numerical simulation of a Cascadia Subduction Zone tsunami with application to Boundary Bay in the southern Strait of Georgia / Isaac Fine, Richard Thomson, and Nicky Hastings.: Fs97-18/368E-PDF

"A high-resolution, four-level, nested-grid tsunami model was used to simulate tsunami waves and wave-induced currents that will be generated in Boundary Bay in the southern Strait of Georgia by a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake with magnitude Mw 9.0. Two versions of the earthquake-induced tsunami source region were used: Model A, a whole margin buried rupture; and Model B, a whole margin splay-faulting rupture. We found that the two models produce similar results, with Model A generating slightly higher wave amplitudes in the Bay. For both models, the first wave to arrive is a wave trough of 60-80 cm. The leading wave crest that follows the trough is the highest wave, with a peak of 1.1-1.5 m, and arrives roughly 2:45 – 3:15 hours after the start of the earthquake. The primary period of the tsunami waves is 2-3 hours. Maximum wave amplitudes (of up to 1.5 m) occur within the north-western part on the Bay, and along the Semiahmoo coast (up to 1.3 m). The tsunami-induced ocean currents are typically less than 1 m/s in most areas but are up to 3 m/s at the entrance to Drayton Harbor and up to 2 m/s at the mouth of Campbell River on the Semiahmoo coast. Tsunami waves would cause flooding in coastal areas but will be restricted by the presence of the elongated dike. Flooding in the Semiahmoo area will likely occur in the Campbell River valley but will have a limited effect"--Abstract, page iv.

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