The effects of communicating inflation uncertainty on household expectations / by Olena Kostyshyna and Luba Petersen.: FB3-5/2023-63E-PDF
"This paper examines the value of direct communication to households about inflation and the uncertainty around inflation statistics. All types of information about inflation are effective at immediately managing inflation expectations, with information about outlooks being more effective and more relevant than that about recent inflation and Bank targets. We observe no downside to communicating about inflation with uncertainty on two measures: the level of expected inflation and uncertainty about it. On a third measure—probabilistic inflation expectations—we observe positive effects: they become more centered around the communicated ranges. However, communication with uncertainty weakens the link between expected inflation and spending plans, a key channel in the transmission of monetary policy. Communicating precise inflation outlooks can lengthen the effects of these communications on households"--Abstract, page ii.
Permanent link to this Catalogue record:
publications.gc.ca/pub?id=9.932285&sl=0
| Department/Agency | Bank of Canada, issuing body. |
|---|---|
| Title | The effects of communicating inflation uncertainty on household expectations / by Olena Kostyshyna and Luba Petersen. |
| Series title | Staff working paper = Document de travail du personnel, 1701-9397 ; 2023-63 |
| Publication type | Series - View Master Record |
| Language | [English] |
| Format | Electronic |
| Electronic document | |
| Note(s) | ISSN assigned to different series. "Last updated: December 29, 2023." Includes bibliographical references (pages 35-38). Includes abstracts in English and French. |
| Publishing information | [Ottawa] : Bank of Canada = Banque du Canada, 2023. ©2023 |
| Author / Contributor | Kostyshyna, Olena, author. |
| Description | 1 online resource (ii, 79 pages) : colour illustrations. |
| Catalogue number |
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| Subject terms | Inflation (Finance) -- Canada -- Econometric models. Inflation targeting -- Canada -- Econometric models. Rational expectations (Economic theory) -- Canada -- Econometric models. Uncertainty -- Econometric models. Inflation -- Canada -- Modèles économétriques. Ciblage d'inflation -- Canada -- Modèles économétriques. Anticipations rationnelles (Théorie économique) -- Canada -- Modèles économétriques. Incertitude -- Modèles économétriques. |