Decision synthesis in monetary policy / by Tony Chernis, Gary Koop, Emily Tallman and Mike West.: FB3-5/2024-30E-PDF
"The macroeconomy is a complicated dynamic system with significant uncertainties that make modelling difficult. Consequently, decision-makers consider multiple models that provide different predictions and policy recommendations and then synthesize that information into a policy decision. We use Bayesian predictive decision synthesis (BPDS) as a way formalize this monetary policy decision-making process. BPDS draws on recent developments in model combination and statistical decision theory that make it possible to combine models in a manner that incorporates decision goals, expectations and outcomes. We develop a BPDS procedure for a case study of monetary policy decision-making with an inflation-targeting central bank and compare the results against standard model-combination approaches"--Abstract, page ii.
Permanent link to this Catalogue record:
publications.gc.ca/pub?id=9.942685&sl=0
| Department/Agency | Bank of Canada, issuing body. |
|---|---|
| Title | Decision synthesis in monetary policy / by Tony Chernis, Gary Koop, Emily Tallman and Mike West. |
| Series title | Staff working paper = Document de travail du personnel, 1701-9397 ; 2024-30 |
| Publication type | Series - View Master Record |
| Language | [English] |
| Format | Electronic |
| Electronic document | |
| Note(s) | ISSN assigned to different series. "Last updated: August 16, 2024." Includes bibliographical references (pages 33-34). Includes abstracts in English and French. |
| Publishing information | [Ottawa] : Bank of Canada = Banque du Canada, 2024. ©2024 |
| Author / Contributor | Chernis, Tony, author. |
| Description | 1 online resource (ii, 34 pages) : colour illustrations. |
| Catalogue number |
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| Subject terms | Monetary policy -- Decision making -- Econometric models. Politique monétaire -- Prise de décision -- Modèles économétriques. |
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