Preliminary poverty estimates in Canada : a new modelling approach / by Burton Gustajtis, Amanda Halladay, Christian Olivier Nambeu, Eric Olson and Lily Yin.: CS75-0002/2024-7E-PDF

"Official poverty estimates in Canada are determined using the Market Basket Measure (MBM). The MBMis a basket of costs based on five main components: food, clothing, shelter, transportation and other basicnecessities. According to the MBM, individuals or families are considered to live in poverty if their disposableincome is insufficient to purchase a predetermined basket of goods and services required to achieve a modest,basic standard of living given their family size and area of residence. Canada's annual poverty estimates are produced using the Canadian Income Survey (CIS). The CIS is a crosssectional sample survey that collects information during the first six months of a calendar year (i.e., January to June). As is the case with many statistical programs, there is a trade-off between the timeliness and the accuracy of the published estimates. … This paper proposes a method of producing preliminary poverty estimates up to seven months before the official release by using preliminary tax slips (approximately 9 months after the end of the reference year), while ensuring the estimates maintain reasonable revision limits. Following the release of this paper, Statistics Canada Will continue to provide preliminary poverty estimates each fall following the reference year using the methodology described in this paper. The official poverty estimates will continue to be released in the spring of the year after the reference year"--Introduction, page 3.

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