Stock assessment for British Columbia herring in 1995 and forecasts of the potential catch in 1996 / by J.F. Schweigert, C. Fort and L. Hamer.: Fs97-6/2098E-PDF

"Herring stock abundance in British Columbia waters was assessed for 1995 and forecasts were made for 1996 using two analytical methods: (1) escapement model; and (2) age-structured model. Coastwide, the estimated pre-fishery stock biomass for all assessment regions in 1995 was 145,730 tonnes which represents a 16% decrease from 1994 abundance levels. This decline reflects the recruitment of a below average 1992 year-class in 1995 in most assessment areas except the Prince Rupert District where recruitment was average. Forecasts of the pre-fishery spawning stock biomass in 1996 are obtained by weighting the estimates from the two analytical models. Stock forecasts for the northern stock assessment regions are 55,830 and 91,470 tonnes for the southern regions assuming average recruitment to all areas. The recommended 1996 catch (20% of the 1996 forecast herring run) is 29,460 tonnes for the entire B.C. coast assuming average recruitment to all areas. Stock levels in the Queen Charlotte Islands and the west coast of Vancouver Island have continued to decline and available harvestable surpluses may be modified following the PSARC review of these data"--Abstract, page vi.

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