Stock assessment for British Columbia herring in 1994 and forecasts of the potential catch in 1995 / by J.F. Schweigert, C. Fort, and L. Hamer.: Fs97-6/2040E-PDF

"Herring stock abundance in British Columbia waters was assessed for 1994 and forecasts were made for 1995 using two analytical methods: (1) escapement model; and (2) age-structured model. Coastwide, the estimated pre-fishery stock biomass for all assessment regions in 1994 was 177,250 tonnes, a 19% decrease from 1993 abundance levels. This reflects the recruitment of an average or below average 1991 year-class in 1994 following the strong 1989 year-class which recruited to the Strait of Georgia, Central Coast, and Prince Rupert District in 1992. Forecasts of the pre-fishery spawning stock biomass in 1995 are obtained by weighting the estimates from the two analytical models. Stock forecasts for the northern stock assessment regions are 86,520 and 96,820 tonnes for the southern regions assuming average recruitment to all areas. The recommended 1995 catch (20% of the 1995 forecast herring run) is 34,600 tonnes for the entire B.C. coast assuming average recruitment to all areas. Stock levels in the Queen Charlotte Islands and the west coast of Vancouver Island have continued to decline and available harvestable surpluses may be modified following the PSARC review of these data"--Abstract, page vi.

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