Stock assessment for British Columbia herring in 1993 and forecasts of the potential catch in 1994 / by J.F. Schweigert and C. Fort.: Fs97-6/1971E-PDF

"Herring stock abundance in British Columbia waters was assessed for 1993 and forecasts were made for 1994 using two analytical methods: (1) escapement model; and (2) age-structured model. Coastwide, the estimated spawning stock biomass for all assessment regions in 1993 is 192,000 tonnes, a 4% decrease from 1992 abundance levels. This reflects the recruitment of an average 1990 year-class following the strong 1989 year-class which recruited to the Strait of Georgia, Central Coast, and Prince Rupert District in 1992. Forecasts of the pre-fishery spawning stock biomass in 1992 are obtained by weighting the estimates from the two models. Stock forecasts for the northern stock assessment regions are 118,850 and 120,300 tonnes for the southern regions assuming average recruitment to all areas. The recommended 1994 catch (20% of the 1994 forecast herring run) is 47,830 tonnes for the entire B.C. coast. Stock levels in the Queen Charlotte Islands and west coast of Vancouver Island have declined recently and while there is no evidence that these stocks should not be harvested in 1994, there is concern that the Queen Charlotte Islands stock is near the CUTOFF level, below which a fishery closure is recommended"--Abstract, page vi.

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