Stock assessments for British Columbia herring management units in 1980 and forecasts of the potential catch in 1981 / by A.S. Hourston.: Fs97-4/1597E-PDF

"The abundance of the 1980 herring run in British Columbia waters was assessed at 285,000 short tons. This was down 65,000 t from 1979, and about 15% below the average for the past decade. Most of this apparent decline may be attributed to refinements introduced into the 1980 data base and analyses which suggest that some stocks were previously overestimated. Abundance in the Central division stocks was restored from the low 1979 levels to average levels by exceptionally good recruitment in 1980. Similar recruitment levels apparently produced record runs in the Quatsino Sound and Milbanke Sound management units. An apparently large increase in abundance in the Johnstone Strait division and large decreases in the North Coast and Gulf of Georgia divisions were considered to reflect improvements in the data base and/or analysis rather than changes in abundance, although abundance was probably down slightly from 1979 in the Gulf of Georgia. Forecasts for 1981 indicate abundance levels similar to 1979 for most divisions and management units. A slight increase anticipated for the Gulf of Georgia would bring the total run up to 303,000 t. Although this would leave a potential catch of 145,000 t, much of these fish would not be available to current fisheries. Moreover, the apparently exceptional strength of the 1977 year-class in some areas in 1980 may not materialize in 1981; this should be checked by pre-fishing sampling and surveys. Meanwhile, a target catch of about 70,000 t might be considered more realistic for 1981"--Abstract, page iii.

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