The potential effects of climate change in the Peace, Athabasca and Slave River basins : a discussion paper / prepared for the Northern River Basins Study under project 5319-E1 by Stewart J. Cohen.: R71-49/3-65E-PDF

"The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded that increased concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace gases will lead to a warming of the world's climate. The Mackenzie Basin, including the Peace, Athabasca and Slave subbasins, has experienced a warming trend of 1C this century, and there is anecdotal evidence that this has already led to permafrost thaw and lower lake levels in some areas. This does not mean that the "signal" of human-induced warming has been detected, but it does demonstrate that the Mackenzie region is sensitive to current climate variation. Scenarios of climate change, based on outputs from General Circulation Models (GCM) of the atmosphere, indicate that this region would warm by 4 to 5 C by the middle of the 21st century. What impacts would result from these scenarios? The objective of the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS) is to produce an integrated regional assessment of climate change scenarios for the entire watershed, including terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and the communities that depend on them"--Report summary.

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