00000nam 2200000zi 4500 9.954932 CaOODSP 20250908151456 m o d f cr |n||||||||| 250908t20252025oncd ob f|0| 0 eng d CaOODSP eng rda CaOODSP eng eng fre n-cn--- FB3-5/2025-23E-PDF Du, William, author. Perceived unemployment risks over business cycles / William Du, Adrian Monninger, Xincheng Qiu, Tao Wang. [Ottawa] : Bank of Canada = Banque du Canada, 2025. ©2025 1 online resource (ii, 65 pages) : charts. text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier Staff working paper = Document de travail du personnel, 1701-9397 ; 2025-23 "Last updated: August 29, 2025." Includes bibliographical references. "We backcast subjective expectations on job finding and separation in the Survey of Consumer Expectations to 1978, and use real-time machine learning forecasting to proxy their objective counterparts. We document stickiness in job finding and separation expectations in reflecting changes in real-time job finding and separation risks and their substantial heterogeneity across observable and unobservable dimensions. Calibrating these facts into a heterogeneous-agent consumption-saving model reveals that belief stickiness attenuates the precautionary saving channel. As a result, workers under-insure during recessions, leading to a more sluggish recovery afterwards. The combination of high-risk exposure and under-insurance due to belief stickiness operates as a novel amplification mechanism over the business cycle"--Abstract, page ii. Includes abstract in French. Business cycles Canada. Unemployment Canada. Cycles économiques Canada. Chômage Canada. Bank of Canada, issuing body. Staff working paper (Bank of Canada) 2025-23. (CaOODSP)9.806221 PDF 2.33 MB https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2025/banque-bank-canada/FB3-5-2025-23-eng.pdf