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008250908t20252025oncd    ob   f|0| 0 eng d
040 |aCaOODSP|beng|erda|cCaOODSP
041 |aeng|aeng|bfre
043 |an-cn---
0861 |aFB3-5/2025-23E-PDF
1001 |aDu, William, |eauthor.
24510|aPerceived unemployment risks over business cycles / |cWilliam Du, Adrian Monninger, Xincheng Qiu, Tao Wang.
264 1|a[Ottawa] : |bBank of Canada = Banque du Canada, |c2025.
264 4|c©2025
300 |a1 online resource (ii, 65 pages) : |bcharts.
336 |atext|btxt|2rdacontent
337 |acomputer|bc|2rdamedia
338 |aonline resource|bcr|2rdacarrier
4901 |aStaff working paper = Document de travail du personnel, |y1701-9397 ; |v2025-23
500 |a"Last updated: August 29, 2025."
504 |aIncludes bibliographical references.
520 |a"We backcast subjective expectations on job finding and separation in the Survey of Consumer Expectations to 1978, and use real-time machine learning forecasting to proxy their objective counterparts. We document stickiness in job finding and separation expectations in reflecting changes in real-time job finding and separation risks and their substantial heterogeneity across observable and unobservable dimensions. Calibrating these facts into a heterogeneous-agent consumption-saving model reveals that belief stickiness attenuates the precautionary saving channel. As a result, workers under-insure during recessions, leading to a more sluggish recovery afterwards. The combination of high-risk exposure and under-insurance due to belief stickiness operates as a novel amplification mechanism over the business cycle"--Abstract, page ii.
546 |aIncludes abstract in French.
650 0|aBusiness cycles|zCanada.
650 0|aUnemployment|zCanada.
650 6|aCycles économiques|zCanada.
650 6|aChômage|zCanada.
7102 |aBank of Canada, |eissuing body.
830#0|aStaff working paper (Bank of Canada)|v2025-23.|w(CaOODSP)9.806221
85640|qPDF|s2.33 MB|uhttps://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2025/banque-bank-canada/FB3-5-2025-23-eng.pdf