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040 |aCaOODSP|beng|erda|cCaOODSP
0410 |aeng|beng|bfre
043 |an-cn---
0861 |aFB3-5/2025-28E-PDF
1001 |aMoran, Kevin, |d1966- |eauthor.
24510|aRisk scenarios and macroeconomic forecasts / |cKevin Moran, Stéphane Surprenant, Dalibor Stevanovic.
264 1|a[Ottawa] : |bBank of Canada = Banque du Canada, |c2025.
264 4|c©2025
300 |a1 online resource (i, 31 pages) : |bcolour illustrations.
336 |atext|btxt|2rdacontent
337 |acomputer|bc|2rdamedia
338 |aonline resource|bcr|2rdacarrier
4901 |aStaff working paper = Document de travail du personnel, |y1701-9397 ; |v2025-28
500 |aISSN assigned to different series.
500 |a"Last updated: October 31, 2025."
504 |aIncludes bibliographical references (pages 30-31).
5203 |a"This paper discusses the usefulness of risk scenarios—forecasts conditional on specific future paths for economic variables and shocks—for monitoring the Canadian economy. To do so, we use a vector autoregressive (VAR) approach to produce macroeconomic forecasts conditional on four risk scenarios: high oil prices, a US recession, a tight labor market, and a restrictive monetary policy. The results show that these scenarios represent significant risk factors for the evolution of the Canadian economy. In particular, the high-oil-price scenario is beneficial for the Canadian economy, while a US recession induces a significant slowdown. The very tight labor market scenario leads to additional price increases relative to an unconditional forecast, and the restrictive monetary policy scenario increases the unemployment rate while lowering the inflation rate slightly"--Abstract, page i.
546 |aIncludes abstracts in English and French.
650 0|aEconomic forecasting|zCanada|xEconometric models.
650 0|aRisk|zCanada|xEconometric models.
650 6|aPrévision économique|zCanada|xModèles économétriques.
650 6|aRisque|zCanada|xModèles économétriques.
7102 |aBank of Canada, |eissuing body.
830#0|aStaff working paper (Bank of Canada)|v2025-28.|w(CaOODSP)9.806221
85640|qPDF|s953 KB|uhttps://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2025/banque-bank-canada/FB3-5-2025-28-eng.pdf