000	00000cam 2200000zi 4500
001	9.961226
003	CaOODSP
005	20260323134549
006	m     o  d f
007	cr cn|||||||||
008	260323e20260304oncd    ob   f000 0 eng d
040	|aCaOODSP|beng|erda|cCaOODSP
086	1 |aFB3-5/2026-6E-PDF
100	1 |aLeiva-Leon, Danilo, |eauthor.
245	10|aDo monetary policy shocks affect the neutral rate of interest? / |cDanilo Leiva-Leon, Rodrigo Sekkel, Luiz Uzeda.
264	1|a[Ottawa] : |bBank of Canada = Banque du Canada, |cMarch 4, 2026.
264	4|c©2026
300	|a1 online resource (47 pages) : |bgraphs.
336	|atext|btxt|2rdacontent
337	|acomputer|bc|2rdamedia
338	|aonline resource|bcr|2rdacarrier
490	1 |aStaff working paper = |aDocument de travail du personnel, |x1701-9397 ; |v2026-6
500	|aCover title.
504	|aIncludes bibliographical references (pages 28-32).
520	3 |a"We develop a Trend-Cycle Bayesian VAR that jointly estimates the real neutral rate of interest, r*t, and identifies monetary policy shocks. A key innovation is that cyclical shocks, notably monetary policy shocks, can affect the trend of macroeconomic variables, providing a way to assess whether transitory disturbances have persistent effects. Using external instruments, we find that contractionary shocks reduce r*t, and lower trend GDP growth. Although they generate sizable movements, their contribution to the secular decline in r*t, is modest and slightly positive since the early 1990s. Cross-country evidence shows similar patterns"--Abstract.
650	0|aMonetary policy|xEconometric models.
650	0|aInterest rates|xEconometric models.
650	6|aPolitique monétaire|xModèles économétriques.
650	6|aTaux d'intérêt|xModèles économétriques.
710	2 |aBank of Canada, |eissuing body.
830	#0|aStaff working paper (Bank of Canada)|x1701-9397 ; |v2026-6.|w(CaOODSP)9.806221
856	40|qPDF|s1.55 MB|uhttps://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2026/banque-bank-canada/FB3-5-2026-6-eng.pdf