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Supply shocks in the fog : the role of endogenous uncertainty / Anastasiia Antonova, Mykhailo Matvieiev, Céline Poilly.FB3-5/2026-12E-PDF

"Recessions are often accompanied by heightened uncertainty. We build an imperfect-information New Keynesian model in which procyclical information quality generates endogenous countercyclical uncertainty, and the nonlinear structure allows for a precautionary saving motive. We show theoretically that endogenous uncertainty operates entirely through aggregate demand. For negative supply shocks, the induced rise in uncertainty can depress demand enough to dominate the shock's inflationary force, turning the shock deflationary. Monetary policy can fully eliminate the adverse effect of endogenous uncertainty by stabilizing the output gap. We quantify the endogenous uncertainty channel in the US data and find it to be strong enough to generate deflation in response to negative supply shocks"--Abstract.

Permanent link to this Catalogue record:
publications.gc.ca/pub?id=9.962981&sl=0

Publication information
Department/Agency
  • Bank of Canada, issuing body.
TitleSupply shocks in the fog : the role of endogenous uncertainty / Anastasiia Antonova, Mykhailo Matvieiev, Céline Poilly.
Series title
  • Staff working paper = Document de travail du personnel, 1701-9397 ; 2026-12
Publication typeMonograph - View Master Record
Language[English]
FormatDigital text
Electronic document
Note(s)
  • Incorrect ISSN (1701-9397) printed in this publication.
  • "Last updated: April 10, 2026."
  • Includes bibliographical references (pages 26-29).
Publishing information
  • [Ottawa] : Bank of Canada = Banque du Canada, 2026.
  • ©2026
Author / Contributor
  • Antonova, Anastasiia, author.
Description1 online resource (41 pages) : colour illustrations.
Catalogue number
  • FB3-5/2026-12E-PDF
Subject terms
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