00000nam##2200000za#4500 9.571652 CaOODSP 20211126112844 cr ||||||||||| 150406|1996||||xxc|||||o f|0| 0 eng|d 1701-9397 CaOODSP eng n-cn--- FB3-2/96-5E-PDF Bank of Canada. A distant-early-warning model of inflation based on M1 disequilibria / [electronic resource] by Jamie Armour ... [et al.]. Ottawa - Ontario : Bank of Canada April 1996. 26p. graphs, references, table Bank of Canada working paper 1701-9397 96-5 "A vector error-correction model (VECM) that forecasts inflation between the current quarter and eight quarters ahead is found to provide significant leading information about inflation. The model focuses on the effects of deviations of M1 from its long-run demand but also includes, among other things, the influence of the exchange rate, a simple measure of the output gap and past prices."--Abstract. The ISBN (0-662-24416-8) and ISSN (1192-5434) for the print edition have been incorrectly copied in this electronic publication. A vector error-correction model (VECM) that forecasts inflation between the current quarter and eight quarters ahead is found to provide significant leading information about inflation. The model focuses on the effects of deviations of M1 from its long-run demand but also includes, among other things, the influence of the exchange rate, a simple measure of the output gap and past prices.--Abstract Résumés en français. 11-19-Supp 2011-09-23 Inflation gcpds Armour, Jamie A distant-early-warning model of inflation based on M1 disequilibria / (CaOODSP)9.612949 Working paper (Bank of Canada) 1701-9397 96-5 (CaOODSP)9.504604 http://publications.gc.ca PDF 96 KB https://publications.gc.ca/collections/Collection/FB3-2-96-5E.pdf 96-5