The indicator models of core inflation for Canada / by Richard Dion. : FB3-2/99-13E-PDF
When there is uncertainty about estimates of the margin of unused capacity in the economy, examining a range of inflation indicators may help in assessing the balance of risks regarding the outlook for inflation. This paper tests a wide range of observable variables for their leading-indicator properties with respect to core inflation, including: commodity prices, cost indicators, measures of capacity pressures in labour and product markets, and components of the consumer price index (CPI) itself. After a preliminary screening of indicators using Granger causality tests, estimated bivariate indicator models generate post-sample static forecasts one quarter ahead and two quarters ahead over the period 1995 (Q1). A ridge regression technique is used to optimally combine selected bivariate forecasts into multivariate forecasts. The root-mean-squared errors of both the bivariate and multivariate forecasts are compared with those of benchmark models -- a Phillips curve, an autoregressive model, and two naive models.--Abstract
Lien permanent pour cette publication :
publications.gc.ca/pub?id=9.571697&sl=1
Ministère/Organisme | Bank of Canada. |
---|---|
Titre | The indicator models of core inflation for Canada / by Richard Dion. |
Variante du titre | Indicator models of core inflation for Canada |
Titre de la série | Bank of Canada working paper1701-939799-13 |
Type de publication | Série - Voir l'enregistrement principal |
Langue | [Anglais] |
Format | Électronique |
Document électronique | |
Autres formats offerts | Papier-[Anglais] |
Note(s) | "When there is uncertainty about estimates of the margin of unused capacity in the economy, examining a range of inflation indicators may help in assessing the balance of risks regarding the outlook for inflation. This paper tests a wide range of observable variables for their leading-indicator properties with respect to core inflation, including: commodity prices, cost indicators, measures of capacity pressures in labour and product markets, and components of the consumer price index (CPI) itself. After a preliminary screening of indicators using Granger causality tests, estimated bivariate indicator models generate post-sample static forecasts one quarter ahead and two quarters ahead over the period 1995 (Q1). A ridge regression technique is used to optimally combine selected bivariate forecasts into multivariate forecasts. The root-mean-squared errors of both the bivariate and multivariate forecasts are compared with those of benchmark models -- a Phillips curve, an autoregressive model, and two naive models."--Abstract. The catalogue number (FB3-2/99-13E), ISBN (0-662-28177-2), and ISSN (1192-5434) for the print edition have been incorrectly copied in this electronic publication. Résumé en français. |
Information sur la publication | Ottawa - Ontario : Bank of Canada September 1999. |
Description | 29p.references, tables |
ISSN | 1701-9397 |
Numéro de catalogue |
|
Descripteurs | Inflation Forecasting Models |
Demander des formats alternatifs
Pour demander une publication dans un format alternatif, remplissez le formulaire électronique des publications du gouvernement du Canada. Utilisez le champ du formulaire «question ou commentaire» pour spécifier la publication demandée.- Date de modification :