00000nam 2200000za 4500 9.820053 CaOODSP 20221107143121 cr ||||||||||| 160627s2016 onc ob f000 0 eng d CaOODSP eng eng fre n-cn--- FB3-5/2016-28E-PDF Champagne, Julien. The real-time properties of the Bank of Canada's staff output gap estimates [electronic resource] / by Julien Champagne, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle and Rodrigo Sekkel. [Ottawa] : Bank of Canada, c2016. iii, 19 p. Staff Working Paper, 1701-9397 ; 2016-28 "June 2016." Includes bibliographical references (p. 15-16). We study the revision properties of the Bank of Canada’s staff output gap estimates since the mid-1980s. Our results suggest that the average staff output gap revision has decreased significantly over the past 15 years, in line with recent evidence for the U.S. Alternatively, revisions from purely statistical methods to estimate the gap have not experienced the same drop in magnitude. We then examine the usefulness of real-time gap estimates for forecasting inflation and find no deterioration in forecast performance when inflation projections are conditioned on real time rather than on final estimates of the gap. gccst Economic forecasting gccst Statistical analysis Poulin-Bellisle, Guillaume. Sekkel, Rodrigo M. Bank of Canada. Staff working paper (Bank of Canada) 1701-9397 ; 2016-28 (CaOODSP)9.806221 PDF 515 KB https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2016/banque-bank-canada/FB3-5-2016-28-eng.pdf