Complex analysis of combat in Afghanistan / by James Wanliss. : D68-3/322-2014E-PDF

Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), a modern technique for examination of complex systems, was applied to combat related data in Afghanistan for the epoch 2002-2009. To detect long-term correlations in the presence of trends, we apply DFA that is able to systematically detect and overcome nonstationarities in the data at all timescales. The objective was to determine whether the nature of combat in Afghanistan, as observed by NATO forces, is fractal in its statistical nature. In every instance we found strong power law correlations in the data, and were able to extract accurate scaling exponents. On the other hand, a decrease in hostilities is likely to persist from one day to the next. We find a measure of predictability inherent in the dynamics of the combat system - there is a history or memory in the signal so that the future dynamics are not random but correlated with past events. This is seen most strongly for Att and d events, and only weakly for is and id events.

Lien permanent pour cette publication :
publications.gc.ca/pub?id=9.821051&sl=1

Renseignements sur la publication
Ministère/Organisme Canada. Defence R&D Canada.
Presbyterian College.
Titre Complex analysis of combat in Afghanistan / by James Wanliss.
Titre de la série Contract report ; 2014-C322
Type de publication Série - Voir l'enregistrement principal
Langue [Anglais]
Format Électronique
Document électronique
Note(s) "December 2014."
Includes bibliographical references.
Information sur la publication [Ottawa] : Defence Research and Development Canada, c2014.
Auteur / Contributeur Wanliss, James.
Description vii, 17 p. : graphs, tables.
Numéro de catalogue
  • D68-3/322-2014E-PDF
Descripteurs Technical reports
Demander des formats alternatifs
Pour demander une publication dans un format alternatif, remplissez le formulaire électronique des publications du gouvernement du Canada. Utilisez le champ du formulaire «question ou commentaire» pour spécifier la publication demandée.
Date de modification :