00000cam 2200000za 4500 9.824092 CaOODSP 20260219114536 cr ||||||||||| 160913s2016 oncdb ob f000 0 eng d CaOODSP eng eng fre n-cn--- Fs70-5/2016-061E-PDF Swain, D. P. Population modelling results for the assessment of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) stocks in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (NAFO Division 4T) to 2015 [electronic resource] / D.P. Swain. Title at head of French summary: Résultats de la modélisation de la population pour l'évaluation des stocks de hareng de l'Atlantique (Clupea harengus) dans le sud du golfe du Saint-Laurent (division 4T de l'OPANO) en 2015 Ottawa : Fisheries and Oceans Canada, c2016. xi, 53 p. : tables, map., graphs. Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat research document, 1919-5044 ; 2016/061, Gulf Region “September 2016.” Includes bibliographical references. "For assessment purposes, Atlantic herring in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence are treated as two independent components, spring and fall spawners. Spring spawning herring were assessed using a virtual population analysis (VPA) which allowed for time-varying catchability (q) to the gillnet fishery. Model estimated spring spawner spawning stock biomass (SSB) has been in the critical zone of the Precautionary Approach (PA) framework since 2004. The median estimate of SSB at the start of 2016 (9,660 t) was less than 45% of the limit reference point (LRP = 22,000 t). The estimated instantaneous rate of fishing mortality (F) on aged 6 to 8 year old spring spawner herring declined below the reference level (F = 0.35) in 2010 and averaged 0.18 in 2013 to 2015. Based on projections with catch in 2016 and 2017 varying between 0 t and 2,500 t annually, the probability that SSB will be less than the LRP in 2018 varies between 90 and 95%, the probability that average F for ages 6 to 8 will exceed the reference level (0.35) in 2017 varies from 0 to 70%, and the probability of a 5% decline in SSB between 2016 and 2018 varies from 23 to 65%" - Abstract - p.x. Text in English, abstract in French. gccst Fisheries resources gccst Salt water fish gccst Fisheries management Canada. Department of Fisheries and Oceans. Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat. Research document (Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat) 1919-5044 ; 2016/061, Gulf Region (CaOODSP)9.507396 PDF 3.86 MB https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2016/mpo-dfo/Fs70-5-2016-061-eng.pdf